[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Two cold fronts will merge in the Western Atlantic Ocean
tomorrow night. The resulting cold front will reach from
Bermuda to SE Cuba by Wed evening. Gale-force winds will develop
Wed afternoon and continue through Thu evening. Seas will build to
10 to 17 ft near the highest winds. The 12 ft seas will reach as
far south as 25N between 47W and 74W. Winds will drop below
strong by Fri morning with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to
08N46W. A trough extends west of the ITCZ from 05N51W to 10N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 32W
and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the southeast Gulf from the
Straits of Florida to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A
secondary cold front extends from Ft. Myers, Florida to the
western Gulf near 12N95W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the
southern Bay of Campeche near the tail-end of the stationary
front. Strong northerly winds are noted off the coast of Veracruz
with seas ranging 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Seas range 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the secondary cold front will move SE and enter
the NW Caribbean on Wed, accompanied by fresh to strong winds.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected to persist along the
coast near Veracruz, Mexico through Wed. High pressure behind the
front will shift E into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate
to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat,
ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf
Sat evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level high pressure extends across the Caribbean which is
preventing any significant convection across the basin. A trough
extends from the Windward Passage to the central Caribbean. Strong
surface high pressure to the northeast of the basin is interacting
with low pressure over Colombia. This is causing fresh to strong
winds across the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. Seas range 7 to 10 ft in this area. In the eastern
basin, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with seas 6 to 8 ft.
Swell bringing sea to 8 ft is noted on the eastern side of the
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted in the NW
Caribbean with seas 4 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, large NE swell is expected to continue across
the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Thu night. A cold front is expected to move into the
northwestern Caribbean early Wed, and reach from the N coast of
Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Fri morning, where it will
remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the front across the
Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba on Wed night. Strong winds
will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening with the front
and expand across most of the east and central Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information about the
Gale Warning in the Atlantic.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front is moving over Florida and
extends from 31N77W to 27N80W. Moderate to locally fresh westerly
winds are noted behind the front with seas to 4 ft. A cold front
stretches east of this front from 31N62W to 29N69W then stalls
from that point to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong SW
winds are noted ahead of the front. Seas range 5 to 9 ft.

In the central Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area
anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure near 27N43W. Light to gentle
winds are noted underneath the high with seas 5 to 8 ft from the
high pres and northward to 31N. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and the ITCZ is leading to moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail from 07N to 20N. A group of northerly swell is noted
near these fresh trade winds, just to the east of the Lesser
Antilles, with seas ranging 7 to 10 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends north of the Canary
Islands near 31N14W to 25N28W to 17N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted east of the front to the African coast as far
south as Mauritania. Gentle to moderate winds prevail ahead and
behind the front. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted from the
southern coast of Mauritania southward to the ITCZ. Seas range 4
to 6 ft in this region.

For the forecast W of 55W, The cold front off the Florida coast will
move SE and reach from near 31N62W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening,
then weaken from near 31N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola Thu
evening. Gale- force winds and high seas are expected both ahead
of and behind this front, to the north of 27.5N, Wed evening
through Thu evening. The front will stall along 20N Fri through
Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
AReinhart
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