[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1013 mb
low pressure system located near 29N39.5W and a strong high
pressure system well east of Bermuda result in near gale to gale-
force winds mainly north of 29N and between 38W and 43W. Seas are
16 to 17 ft to the northwest of the low. Seas greater than 12 ft
dominate the waters N of 26N and between 37W and 46W. The low
pressure will drift E today. Gale force winds will continue
through this morning before the low begins to weaken this
afternoon. As a result, seas will begin to subside by this
evening. Winds will decrease below 25 kt and seas will subside
below 12 ft on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 07N18W to 07N33W. A surface trough is analyzed along
34W from 04N to 16N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 02N to 13N and between 25W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Mobile, AL to south of
Tuxpan, Mexico near 20N96.5W. Divergence aloft is sustaining a
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This line is a bit
ahead of the front in the NE Gulf, but the line is along the front
over the SW Gulf. Tranquil weather conditions are seen in the SE
Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5
ft are noted to the NW of the frontal boundary. Meanwhile,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present to the SE
of the front.

For the forecast, the above-mentioned front will reach from
Apalachicola, FL to the western Bay of Campeche this evening, from
Ft. Myers, FL to the south-central Bay of Campeche Mon evening,
and from west-central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to
the south-central Bay of Campeche Tue evening, before moving SE of
the basin early Wed. Dense marine fog is possible this morning
near portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida
coasts north of Siesta Key. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico today through
Wed. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected Mon night through Tue
night S of 25N becoming fresh N to NE winds Wed across all but NW
portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea remains under the dominion of a subtropical
ridge centered well east of Bermuda that extends southwestward
into the region. The tight pressure gradient continues to sustain
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean Sea, locally
near-gale force in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh trades
prevail in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the central
Caribbean, highest offshore of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the
eastern portion of the basin and 4-7 ft in the western Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted from 14.5N to 18N
between 80W and 84W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure located E of Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in
northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through early
today. The high will shift SE and weaken through Tue, leading to a
gradual diminishing trend in winds and seas across the basin this
afternoon through Tue. Fresh trades and large NE swell are
expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the
Lesser Antilles, today through Wed. A cold front is expected to
move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, move SE, and reach
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. Fresh N to NE
winds and building seas are likely behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect near 29N40W. Please see the Special
Features section for more information.

A cold front extends from the gale center located near 29N39.5W to
26.5N38.5W to 20.5N45W, and continues as a stationary front to
20.5N58W. A warm front extends ENE from the low to 30.5N34W.
Scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm south of the
stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is near the low
pressure and warm front, north of 27N between 27W and 42W. Farther
west, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N63W to 26N64W to 17N62W.
Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE-E winds north
of the stationary front and east of the surface trough. Seas in
these waters are 8-10 ft.

The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge positioned well east of Bermuda. This
1026 mb high pressure supports mainly moderate to locally fresh
winds and seas of 4-7 ft across the western Atlantic. In the rest
of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken and dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong E
winds and rough seas in N swell prevail north of the front and
will gradually subside through tonight. Strong high pressure
centered E of Bermuda will shift SE and weaken into early next
week, ahead of the next cold front that is expected to emerge off
the coast of northeastern Florida early Mon. The front will reach
from near 31N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL Mon evening, and weaken
considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W to the northwestern
Bahamas Tue evening. Another strong cold front is expected to move
across the NW waters Wed and Wed night, progressing eastward into
Thu. This front will be followed by strong to near-gale force NW
winds north of 27N, with gale force winds possible north of 29N,
and quickly building seas.

$$
Hagen
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