[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: 1014 mb low pressure is centered near
30N40W. N to NE gales are analyzed north of 30N between 40W and
43W with peak seas of 17 ft. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of
a line from 31N38W to 28N40W to 28N45W to 331N46W with a NE swell
direction and period of 9-10 seconds. Winds and seas will diminish
beginning on Sunday as the low weakens. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N23W to 03N32W. A second segment of the ITCZ is
from 02N40W to the equator and 48W. Between the ITCZ segments, a
surface trough is along 37W from 03N to 09N. Scattered moderate
convection is from the equator north to 07N between 33W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1011 mb low pressure is centered near 29N93W. A warm front extends
ENE from the low pressure across SE Louisiana through the coastal
NE Gulf waters into the Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends
SW from the low pressure to Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate NW
winds are west of the front, with moderate to fresh S to SW winds
east of the front. Seas are 3-6 ft across the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 83W and
90W.

For the forecast, the cold front will move little today and then
move SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche
Sun evening, from South Florida to the south-central Bay of
Campeche Mon evening, and extend from central Cuba to near the
northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW Gulf on Tue before
becoming stationary and dissipating by late Tue night. High
pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf
near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds are expected Tue and Tue night from 22N to 26N
west of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure in the subtropical Atlantic continues to
support strong to near-gale force trades in the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. These wind speeds were
observed by satellite scatterometer this morning. Trades are fresh
elsewhere in the central Caribbean. As a result of these wind
speeds, seas have built to 8-11 ft within the central and SW Caribbean
from 09N to 16N between 71W and 81W, with peak seas near 12N77W.
Elsewhere in the eastern and western Caribbean, trades are
moderate to locally fresh with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
through tonight. As the high weakens and shifts eastward, the area
of fresh to strong trade winds will diminish some Mon into Tue. A
cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean
Wed and Wed night, followed by fresh northeast winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

A cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure near 30N40W to
20N61W. A shear line continues from 20N61W to 21N67W to 25N74W.
Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of
the front and shear line. A few showers are along the cold front.
Seas greater than 8 ft are north of the cold front between 35W and
59W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 24N37W to 20N43W.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of strong
subtropical high pressure currently located over Bermuda and near
Portugal. Gentle to moderate trades prevail, with 4-7 ft seas in
open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it
moves slowly southward through tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough seas in N swell prevail north of the front this
morning and will gradually subside through late Sun. Strong high
pressure centered well north of the region will shift eastward
and weaken into early next week ahead of the next cold front
that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida
early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the
northwest Bahamas and to near the Florida Keys Mon night, and
begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N55W to the central
Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by Tue night. Another cold
front is expected to move across the area Wed and Wed night,
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and
building seas.

$$
Mahoney
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