[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 010242
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is a tiny tropical cyclone with the convective cloud tops only
extending 50 to 60 n mi across.  However, geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds.  The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Jose is likely near its peak intensity.  There is no way Jose will
escape the outflow associated with Hurricane Franklin, that is
expected to begin affecting the small storm by midday Friday.
Therefore, the forecast shows a steady weakening trend until it
becomes absorbed by Franklin in about 36 hours.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is moving in the flow
between Franklin and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  A
faster motion to the north is expected until the system dissipates
on Saturday.  The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 32.7N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 35.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 39.9N  51.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Fritz
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