[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Aug 31 18:19:24 CDT 2023


AXNT20 KNHC 312319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Franklin is centered near 36.0N 60.1W at 31/2100 UTC or
320 nm NE of Bermuda, and moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. NW swell is sending seas of 9 to 11 ft into
the TAFB area from 29N-31N between 56W-64W. Scattered moderate
convection is found north of 30N between 59W and 64W. Franklin
will continue moving ENE and farther away from the area.

Tropical Storm Jose is centered near 30.8N 52.2W at 31/2100 UTC
or 650 nm E of Bermuda, and moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking around 12 ft near the
center. Jose is rather small in size. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. A faster northward
motion is expected during the next day or so, and Jose is
expected to become absorbed by Franklin on Fri.

Idalia has become a post-tropical cyclone as of 31/2100 UTC, and
is centered near 33.5N 73.5W, or 145 nm SE of Cape Hatteras, NC
and moving E at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas of
12 to 18 ft and winds of 25 to 35 kt are occurring from 29N to
31N between 70W and 77W. Idalia will move ESE to near 31N66W by
Sat afternoon, where it is expected to transition to a tropical
storm again. Strong to gale force winds and 12 to 18 ft seas will
move eastward through Sat, north of 27N between Bermuda and 76W.

Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: An eastern Atlantic tropical
wave is near 27W from 21N southward through a 1006 mb low (AL94)
at 17N27W, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 23N between 18W and 32W. A short-
lived tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
later tonight or on Friday while the system moves northwestward at
10 to 15 kt across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

A small 1010 mb low southeast of Bermuda near 29N57W, remnants of
Gert, is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N to 29N
between 55W and 58W. Winds to 25 kt and seas to 9 ft are likely
occurring in the southern semicircle of this low, extending 90 nm
S of the center. This system has a short window to become a
tropical depression during the next day or so while it drifts
northeastward or eastward, before upper-level winds become
increasingly unfavorable by the weekend. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is medium.

See hurricanes.gov for public advisories on the active systems and
for the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. See
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest High
Seas Forecast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present from 09N to 14N between 55W
and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 76/77W from Jamaica southward
to western Colombia, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and tstorms are ahead of the wave axis between 78W and
82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-
Senegal border near 16N17W to AL94 near 17N27W to 10N41W. Outside
of the convection associated with AL94, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 34W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches across the Gulf of Mexico from near
Pensacola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche. Cloudiness with
isolated showers cover the eastern and central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas cover the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface trough over the central Gulf
will drift westward as high pressure continues to build over the
Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will persist through early next week with slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the showers and thunderstorms mentioned above in the
tropical waves section, scattered showers and tstorms leftover
from afternoon heating are over Haiti, the south coast of Cuba and
to the west of Jamaica.

The Atlantic ridge along 23N continues to support fresh trades
across the central Caribbean, strong in the south-central basin.
Seas are 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate trades are in
the eastern Caribbean with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of 81W with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the
central Caribbean through Fri night with moderate seas. Meanwhile,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will
weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes, and this
will continue through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia, Invest AL94 and the remnants of Gert.

North of 26N and west of 50W, strong winds and rough seas are
found due to Idalia, Franklin, Jose, and the remnants of Gert.
Elsewhere west of 35W, winds are generally moderate or weaker, and
seas are 6 ft or less. Winds and seas are ramping up in
association with Invest AL94, located just NW of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is
forecast to become a tropical cyclone again by Sat afternoon when
the center is forecast to be near 30.9N 65.9W. Gale force winds
and rough to very rough seas associated with the southern
periphery of Idalia will impact the north waters tonight and Fri.
Moderate to rough seas generated by Hurricane Franklin will
continue to propagate across the NE waters through Fri. The
remnants of Gert and Jose will also contribute to mixed and
confused swell over the northeastern waters through Fri.

$$
Hagen
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