[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Aug 31 15:40:04 CDT 2023


WTNT41 KNHC 312039
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

The cloud pattern of Jose has changed little since earlier today.
Banding features are limited, and the convection near the center
is not very deep at this time.  The upper-level outflow is being
impeded over the western portion of the circulation, suggestive
of northwesterly shear over the system.  The current intensity
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
T-number from TAFB.

Latest center fixes indicate that the system is moving northward
with increasing forward speed.  The current motion estimate is
360/10 kt.  During the next 12 to 24 hours Jose should continue to
move generally northward, with a continued increase in forward
speed, along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone,  Then,
the cyclone is likely to become entrained into the eastern portion
of the larger circulation of Franklin.  The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the
global model solutions.

Given the influence of nearby Franklin on both the low-level
circulation and the upper-level outflow, Jose is not likely to
strengthen significantly during the next day or so.  The official
forecast, like the previous one, shows the system dissipating after
24 hours since it is expected to be absorbed by Franklin by then.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 30.8N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 33.1N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 37.2N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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