[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 310849
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Convection since the prior advisory has become markedly better
organized on infrared and shortwave-IR imagery. Instead of the
bursting pattern exhibited the prior two nights, there is more
evidence of curved banding, which was noted on the GMI microwave
pass last evening and a more recent AMSR2 pass at 0458 UTC.
Subjective estimates form TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt, and the
latest SATCON estimate was up to 37 kt. All these data suggest the
depression has become tropical storm Jose, and 35 kt is the initial
intensity this advisory.

Jose has certainly been in no hurry to move anywhere the last couple
of days, but may finally be starting a more northward motion, now
estimated at 350/5 kt. Part of the storm's previous lack of motion
was related to competing steering influences from mid-level ridging
both to its north and south, keeping the small cycle parked in
place. However, The large circulation of Hurricane Franklin
approaching from the west should break this steering stalemate. Jose
is forecast to soon accelerate northward as it becomes swept up in
the larger hurricane's circulation. The track guidance is in good
agreement with this solution, and the track forecast was largely an
update of the previous advisory.

Despite Jose becoming a tropical storm, it does not appear likely
to intensify very much more. While vertical wind shear is currently
low, it should rapidly increase as Jose accelerates north and
Franklin's outflow increases the upper-level flow from the opposite
direction. Most of the guidance shows Jose getting absorbed by
Franklin by the weekend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows this solution occuring in 48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 28.8N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 30.3N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 32.6N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 36.4N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN

$$
Forecaster Papin
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