[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 33.5N 79.1W at 31/0600
UTC or 20 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina, moving NE at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Idalia is
moving toward the northeast and this general motion is expected
to continue overnight.  An eastward to east-southeastward motion
is forecast to begin later today and continue through Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will move near or
along the coast of South Carolina overnight and then just
offshore of the coast of North Carolina today.  Idalia will then
move over the western Atlantic into the weekend. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Idalia is
expected to remain a tropical storm when if moves off the coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 178 nm from the
center.  A wind gust of 44 kt was recently reported at Piney
Island, North Carolina.

Hurricane Franklin is centered near 34.7N 63.9W at 31/0600 UTC
or 150 nm NNE of Bermuda, moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85
kt with gusts to 105 kt. Franklin is moving toward the east-
northeast and this general motion should continue through Friday
followed by a turn to the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is expected to continue moving
away from Bermuda today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 39 nm from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 152 nm.  A weather station at the Bermuda airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 30 kt and a gust of 41 kt.

Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 28.5N 52.4W at
31/0300 UTC or 680 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.

Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: Low pressure of 1007 mb is
located along a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands at
15.7N24.6W continues to produce showers and thunderstorms that
are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in
the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
https://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest on
Franklin, Idalia and T.D. Eleven. For NHC Forecasts/Advisories
and Public Advisories on these systems, see www.hurricanes.gov

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 55W, S of 18N, moving W
at 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association
with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 73W and S of 19N,
moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted in
association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near 14N17W to AL94 near 15.7N24.6W to 08N44W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N44W to 08N44W to 10N54W. No significant
additional convection is noted, other than the convection
mentioned in the sections above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

With Tropical Storm Idalia in South Carolina winds have
diminished to the 15-20 kt range over the eastern Gulf. Seas
have subsided to 5-7 ft just to the west of Florida. To the west
of 87W and north of 23N, gentle to moderate winds prevail along
with seas of 4-7 ft in E swell. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted over portions of the east-central and
near the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 33.0N 80.0W at
11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 18 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. Conditions across the eastern Gulf continue
to improve as Idalia moves farther away from the basin, with
moderate to locally fresh winds and slight to moderate seas.
High pressure and the improved conditions will persist through
the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a tropical
wave in the central Caribbean.

Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas cover the NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are E of 81W, except for
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft
east of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the
central Caribbean through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail in the western Caribbean with moderate to fresh
winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will weaken this weekend
as the pressure gradient relaxes.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Idalia, Tropical Depression
Eleven, and Invest AL94.

Other than those four systems, the remnants of Gert, are
producing scattered moderate convection from 26N to 28N between
57W and 59W. Recent scatterometer data shows that winds are
around 20 kt. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the sensible weather
north of 19N and east of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate
the remainder of the open waters, along with seas of 3-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 33.0N
80.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 18 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Idalia will move to 33.9N 77.4W Thu
morning, 33.9N 73.8W Thu evening, 33.2N 70.9W Fri morning, 32.3N
69.0W Fri evening, 31.6N 68.2W Sat morning, and 31.4N 67.6W Sat
evening. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves near
32.0N 65.4W late Sun. Hurricane Franklin is near 34.6N 64.5W at
11 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 12 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
associated with outer southern periphery of Franklin will
continue to affect the northern waters through Thu night.


$$
KRV
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