[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 310246
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023

There has been a healthy burst of convection near the estimated
low-level center this evening.  Microwave satellite imagery shows
some small curved bands on the eastern portion of the circulation.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, closest to
the subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The depression continues to meander over the open waters of
the central Atlantic.  Model guidance predicts it will begin moving
to the north soon, and gradually increase in forward speed over the
next day or so between the flow of a subtropical ridge to its east
and the flow around Hurricane Franklin to its west.  Only minor
adjustments have been made to latest official track forecast.

There have also been no changes to the intensity forecast.
Global models indicate the depression should lose deep,
organized convection within a day or so, and the official forecast
shows it becoming a remnant low in 36 h and dissipating by day 2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 28.5N  52.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 29.3N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 31.3N  52.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 33.9N  51.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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