[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 300938
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ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-301745-

Hurricane Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL102023
538 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 /438 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDALIA APPROACHING LANDFALL IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS MORNING.***

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Berrien, Brooks, Cook,
      Inland Dixie, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla,
      Lafayette, Lanier, Leon, Lowndes, Madison, and Thomas
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Ben Hill,
      Coastal Gulf, Colquitt, Decatur, Dougherty, Gadsden, Grady,
      Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Irwin, Lee, Liberty, Mitchell,
      Tift, Turner, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 70 miles south of St Marks or about 90 miles south of
      Tallahassee
    - 29.1N 84.1W
    - Storm Intensity 130 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 18 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

All residents need to stay in shelter today. Please wait until
officials give the all clear before venturing out.

Hurricane Idalia continues to strengthen further. At 5 AM EDT, the
center of Idalia was located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico about
90 miles south of Tallahassee, Florida. Idalia is moving to the north
at 18 mph. Idalia now has top sustained winds of 130 mph, which is a
potentially catastrophic Category 4 Hurricane. Additional strengthening
is still forecast through landfall. Idalia is now forecast to be a
potentially catastrophic Category 4 hurricane at landfall.

To put this into historical context, there are NO major hurricanes
(category 3+) in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have
tracked into Apalachee Bay. This has the makings of an unprecedented
event for this part of the state.

At this time, you need to hunker down and shelter in place.
Additionally, we want to urge those along the I-75 corridor in south
Georgia to prepare for potentially destructive hurricane-force winds.
The current forecast calls for a strong Category 2 hurricane near
Homerville in Clinch County, which brings it dangerously close to
Valdosta and Lakeland. Widespread, significant wind damage and
prolonged power outages will be possible from the eastern Big Bend into
our southern Georgia counties around Valdosta.

Life-threatening and catastrophic storm surge is expected around the
shores of Apalachee Bay. From the Aucilla River to Yankeetown, storm
surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet is possible. Storm surge will be
highly dependent on the storm track, with the highest surge values
along and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge
will peak tonight and Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Indian Pass to the Suwannee
River for the danger of life threatening inundation from rising water
moving inland. Storm surge inundation above normally dry ground could
reach the following heights, if the peak surge occurs with high tide:
1 to 3 feet from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, 3 to 5 feet from Indian
Pass to Carrabelle, 5 to 8 feet from Carrabelle to the mouth of the
Ochlockonee River, 8 to 12 feet from the Ochlockonee River to the
Aucilla River, and 12 to 16 feet from the Aucilla River to the
Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur along the immediate
coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coast from Indian Pass to
the Suwannee River, plus inland portions of the Florida Big Bend and
the I-75 corridor of south Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, plus inland portions of
Southwest Georgia as far northwest as Bainbridge, Camilla, and
Sylvester.

Tropical storm force winds are beginning along the coast, these will
spread inland through the morning. Expect downed trees and powerlines,
possibly widespread, across the eastern Big Bend into southern Georgia
around Valdosta and Moody Air Force Base. Now is the time to shelter
in place.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of
Idalia, especially in the Florida Big Bend int south-central Georgia.
5 to 8 inches of rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts up to
12 inches possible. This could lead to life threatening flash
flooding. A Flood Watch is now in effect from Gulf County, FL to Lee
County, GA and all points eastward. River flooding is possible in the
Ochlockonee, Aucilla, Saint Marks, and Suwannee basins, but fast
forward motion of the storms will keep river flooding minor.

Several tornadoes are possible in the outer rain bands starting
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. This will primarily be north
and east of the center. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 3PM EDT for
Lanier and Lowndes counties and for Madison, Taylor, Lafayette, and
Dixie counties in Florida.

Life-threatening rip currents and high surf are expected along all
beaches for at least the next couple days, well away from the center.
Everyone needs to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
Apalachee Bay. Remain well away from life-threatening surge,
possible catastrophic impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle little to no impact is
anticipated.


* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia. Remain well sheltered
from life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:

    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
across portions of the Florida Big Bend, the eastern Panhandle, and
southern Georgia through Wednesday. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having possible extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:

    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the portions
of the Florida Big Bend and south Georgia. Remain well braced against a
dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:

    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama,
little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

IMMINENT/ONGOING PHASE - Do not enter evacuated areas until officials
have given the all clear to return.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not venture outside while in the eye of a hurricane as any
improvement in weather will only be temporary. Once the eye passes,
conditions will become life threatening as winds immediately return
to dangerous speeds, so remain safely sheltered from the storm.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to
fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as
flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

If an Extreme Wind Warning is issued for your area, move to the
safest place within your shelter. Take the same life-saving actions
as if it were a violent tornado.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 1130 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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