[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300642 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0642 UTC Wed Aug 30 2023

Updated the SPECIAL FEATURES section to include INVEST AL94

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated

The center of Hurricane Idalia, at 30/0600 UTC, is near
28.3N 84.5W. This position also 151 nm/280 km to the south of
Tallahassee in Florida. IDALIA is moving N, or 10 degrees,
16 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts
to 110 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 30 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 25 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within
120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 140 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights
that are 12 feet or greater is: within 120 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 34 feet.
The hazards that are forecast to affect land are:
storm surge, wind, rainfall, surf, and tornadoes.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 24N northward between 78W and
88W.

The center of CATEGORY THREE Hurricane Franklin, at
30/0600 UTC, is near 32.6N 68.7W. This position also is
about 200 nm/370 km to the W of Bermuda. FRANKLIN is
moving toward the NE, or 040 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts
to 120 knots. Hurricane-force winds are: within 30 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 25 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within
130 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 80 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea
heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 200 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 210 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 190 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 170 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 34 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
210 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 25N to 29N between
63W and 65W. The hazards that are forecast to affect
land are: surf and wind. Sea heights of 8 feet or
greater are from 25N northward from 60W westward.

The center Tropical Depression Eleven, at 30/0300 UTC,
is near 28.2N 52.4W. The tropical depression is moving
toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 02 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The
maximum sea heights are 20 feet. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant, and from 24N to 26N between 58W and 59W.
convection prevails within 210 nm E semicircle.

...INVEST AL94 in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within
120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 18W
and 24W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 05N to 23N between 10W and 30W. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for the gradual
development of this system. A tropical depression is
likely to form later this week. The weather system is
forecast to move west-northwestward, and then
northwestward in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours is medium.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Please,
refer to the following website, www.hurricanes.gov,
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from
17N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave.
Nearby precipitation is also close to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from
17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N southward
between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 18N16W, to 11N30W, and 07N37W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N37W, to 06N42W 12N56W 12N60W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Hurricane Idalia, whose center is in the east
central Gulf of Mexico.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak from 90W
westward. All the action is centering around Hurricane
Idalia, which is in the east central Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 26N northward
from 89W westward.

The sea heights are reaching: 4 feet in the west central
Gulf; ranging from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from 90W
westward. The sea heights are 8 feet and higher with
Hurricane Idalia. Gentle winds are from 90W westward.

Hurricane Idalia is near 27.7N 84.5W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving north at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 95 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 958 mb. Idalia will move inland to 30.0N 83.9W
Wed morning, inland to 32.3N 81.3W Wed evening, weaken to
a tropical storm near 33.5N 78.6W Thu morning. High pressure
and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia
Thu and Fri, and persist through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are from Jamaica westward. The clouds and
precipitation are trailing to the south of the circulation
of Hurricane Idalia, that is in the east central Gulf of Mexico.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from
17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N southward
between 60W and 70W.

The sea heights are: from 5 feet to 6 feet from Hispaniola
to the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia; from 4 feet to
5 feet from the Mona Passage eastward; 6 feet from 20N
northward from 80W westward; 4 feet off the SW coast of
Cuba; 3 feet in the waters that are to the south of Jamaica;
1 foot in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
strong SE winds are between Puerto Rico and the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from Puerto
Rico eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh southerly winds
are from 16N northward from 80W westward. Gentle winds are
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall total in Montego Bay in Jamaica was
0.93 inches, for the period that ended at 30/0000 UTC.

Hurricane Idalia is in the NE Gulf of Mexico near
27.7N 84.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 16 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 110 kt,
and the minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Idalia will
continue to move away from the NW Caribbean tonight.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean
tonight through Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades will
prevail in the western Caribbean and moderate to fresh
in the eastern Caribbean through then as well. Trades
will weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Hurricane Franklin.

A 1017 mb low pressure center is near 28N53W. A surface trough
is along 29N45W, to the low pressure center, to 27N56W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 26N to 28N between
50W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N
northward between 44W and 60W.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is from 21N to 24N between
56W and 63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 20N to 28N between 55W and 66W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 30W
eastward. Mostly moderate NE winds are from the line 28N31W
24N46W 20N60W. Fresh winds are from 27N from 60W westward,
around the periphery of Hurricane Franklin. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from 17N
northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from
3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 25N northward between 25W and 37W. This precipitation
is associated with a frontal boundary and a 1019 mb low pressure
center that are from 31N northward between 30W and 40W.

Hurricane Franklin is N of the area near 32.3N 69.0W
at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 953 mb. Franklin will continue to move away
from the area to 33.5N 67.6W Wed morning. Meanwhile, Hurricane
Idalia is in the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27.7N 84.5W at 11 PM
EDT, and is moving north at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
95 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
958 mb. Idalia will move inland to 30.0N 83.9W Wed morning,
inland to 32.3N 81.3W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical storm
near 33.5N 78.6W Thu morning, 33.8N 75.0W Thu evening, 33.5N
72.5W Fri morning, and 32.9N 71.0W Fri evening. Idalia will
change little in intensity as it moves to 32.0N 69.4W late Sat.
Expect increasing winds and building seas E of Florida beginning
late tonight as Idalia moves across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico,
and eventually into the W Atlantic.

$$
MT/JL
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