[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL102023
1157 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 /1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

All preparations need to be complete. Now is the time to hunker down and shelter in place. Conditions will begin rapidly
deteriorating shortly.

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Berrien, Brooks, Cook,
      Inland Dixie, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla,
      Lafayette, Lanier, Leon, Lowndes, Madison, and Thomas
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Ben Hill,
      Coastal Gulf, Colquitt, Decatur, Dougherty, Gadsden, Grady,
      Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Irwin, Lee, Liberty, Mitchell,
      Tift, Turner, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 170 miles south of St Marks or about 190 miles south of
      Tallahassee
    - 27.7N 84.5W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 18 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

All preparations need to be complete. Now is the time to hunker
down and shelter in place. Conditions will begin rapidly deteriorating
shortly.

Hurricane Idalia continues to strengthen further. At 11 PM EDT, the
center of Idalia was located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico about
190 miles south of Tallahassee, Florida. Idalia is moving to the north
at 18 mph. Idalia now has top sustained winds of 110 mph, which is
just below major hurricane strength. Additional strengthening is
expected through landfall. Idalia is now forecast to be a potentially
catastrophic Category 4 hurricane at landfall.

To put this into historical context, there are NO major hurricanes
(category 3+) in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have
tracked into Apalachee Bay. This has the makings of an unprecedented
event for this part of the state.

At this time, you need to hunker down and shelter in place for the
night, especially across the Florida Big Bend.

Life-threatening and catastrophic storm surge is expected around the
shores of Apalachee Bay. From the Aucilla River to Yankeetown, storm
surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet is possible. Storm surge will be
highly dependent on the storm track, with the highest surge values
along and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge
will peak tonight and Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Indian Pass to the Suwannee
River for the danger of life threatening inundation from rising water
moving inland. Storm surge inundation above normally dry ground could
reach the following heights, if the peak surge occurs with high tide:
1 to 3 feet from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, 3 to 5 feet from Indian
Pass to Carrabelle, 5 to 8 feet from Carrabelle to the mouth of the
Ochlockonee River, 8 to 12 feet from the Ochlockonee River to the
Aucilla River, and 12 to 16 feet from the Aucilla River to the
Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur along the immediate
coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coast from Indian Pass to
the Suwannee River, plus inland portions of the Florida Big Bend and
the I-75 corridor of south Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, plus inland portions of
Southwest Georgia as far northwest as Bainbridge, Camilla, and
Sylvester.

Tropical storm force winds will arrive in the next few hours along the
coast and spread inland into Wednesday morning. Expect downed trees and
powerlines, possibly widespread in the Big Bend region, with prolonged
power outages possible. Ensure you have enough supplies to last for
several days. Now is the time to shelter in place.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of
Idalia, especially in the Florida Big Bend into south-central Georgia.
5 to 8 inches of rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts
possible. This could lead to life threatening flash flooding. A Flood
Watch is now in effect from Gulf County, FL to Lee County, GA and all
points eastward. River flooding is possible in the Ochlockonee,
Aucilla, Saint Marks, and Suwannee basins, but fast forward motion of
the storms will keep river flooding minor.

Several tornadoes are possible in the outer rain bands starting
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. This will primarily be north
and east of the center. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Taylor, Dixie,
and Lafayette counties until 6AM EDT.

Life-threatening rip currents and high surf are expected along all
beaches for at least the next couple days, well away from the center.
Everyone needs to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible catastrophic
impacts across Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia. Potential
impacts in this area include:

    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across portions of the Florida Big Bend, the
eastern Panhandle, and southern Georgia through Wednesday. Potential
impacts include:

    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
A few tornadoes will be possible over the Florida Big Bend tonight, and
spreading into south Georgia Wednesday. Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama,
little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of
time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose items
and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic information
on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 530 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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