[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Aug 29 22:38:11 CDT 2023

WTUS82 KTBW 300337
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Hurricane Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL  AL102023
1137 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**IDALIA FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY
AT LANDFALL**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal
      Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, Inland Citrus, and
      Pinellas
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Hernando, Inland
      Hillsborough, Inland Levy, Inland Manatee, Inland Pasco, and
      Sumter
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Sarasota
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for DeSoto, Hardee,
      Inland Charlotte, Inland Lee, Inland Sarasota, and Polk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles southwest of Cedar Key FL or about 110 miles
      west of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL
    - 27.7N 84.5W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 18 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Idalia continues to intensify as it moves north to
northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday.
Catastrophic storm surge will accompany the storm as it makes
landfall. Watches and Warnings remain in effect for West Central and
Southwest Florida and the adjacent coastal waters.

The following are the primary hazards of concern with Idalia:

* Storm Surge - Areas across the northern Nature Coast could see
catastrophic levels of storm surge, with life-threatening surge also
possible across west-central Florida. The main period of surge looks
to occur overnight through early Thursday. Storm surge inundation
could reach 10 to 15 feet along the Levy county coastline, 8 to
12 across the Citrus County coastline, 6 to 9 feet along the Hernando
and Pasco county coastlines, 4 to 7 feet for the Pinellas,
Hillsborough, and Manatee county coastlines, 3 to 5 feet along the
Sarasota county coast, and 2 to 4 feet along Charlotte and Lee
counties.

* Wind - Winds will continue to increase overnight, with hurricane
force winds possible across much of the area, especially near the
coast north of Tampa Bay. Idalia is forecast to intensify into a major
hurricane. Tropical storm force winds will continue across the
southern zones. Downed trees and powerlines, with prolonged power
outages will be possible.

* Rainfall - Rain bands from Idalia will continue to lift over the
area overnight and into Wednesday. A slight to moderate risk for
flooding is possible, mainly along the coast and across the northern
zones, closer to the center of the storm. Rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches is possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
West Central and Southwest Florida. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having possible catastrophic impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
West Central and Southwest Florida. Remain well sheltered from dangerous
wind having possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
West Central and Southwest Florida. Remain well guarded against dangerous
flood waters having possible significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across West Central
and Southwest Florida. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado
event having possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and boats tossed about. Dangerous
      projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

IMMINENT/ONGOING PHASE - Do not enter evacuated areas until officials
have given the all clear to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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