[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 300246
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

The depression has lost some organization since this morning. Only a
few disorganized showers are present to the east of the depression's
slightly elongated surface wind field. The initial intensity remains
30 kt, but this is higher than 00Z Dvorak estimates from TAFB or
SAB. An ASCAT-B pass just missed the center of the depression, but
did not show any indication of winds higher than about 25 kt in the
eastern portion of the depression's wind field, so its possible the
NHC intensity analysis is generous.

The depression has moved erratically since it formed, with its
recent movement estimated near 285/2 kt. Continued meandering is
likely tonight, but the cyclone should begin to lift slowly
northward by tomorrow, moving in low-level steering currents between
Hurricane Franklin and a ridge over the central Atlantic. The latest
NHC forecast is a little slower than the previous, remaining close
to the multi-model track consensus.

It's still possible that the depression could briefly organize
enough deep convection to become a tropical storm. However, this
does not appear to be the most likely scenario anymore and it is
not supported by any dynamical models. Upper-level outflow from
Franklin should cause the depression to become a post-tropical
remnant low within about 2 days, if not sooner, and most models
forecast it will dissipate within the next 2-3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 28.2N  52.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 28.6N  52.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 29.4N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 30.4N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 32.4N  52.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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