[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 292038
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

The center of the depression is exposed this afternoon. Its
associated convection remains displaced over the eastern portion of
the circulation by westerly shear. Since the satellite presentation
has not improved since the earlier ASCAT retrievals, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Visible and microwave images indicate the depression has moved
little since this morning, and it appears to be currently drifting
north-northwestward at 345/2 kt within weak steering currents. A
ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to slide eastward
through midweek, which should allow the cyclone to gradually turn
northward and north-northeastward as it accelerates within
deepening southerly flow ahead of Hurricane Franklin. The updated
NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in agreement
within the latest multi-model consensus aids.

There is a brief window during the next day or so where the models
suggest the shear could decrease enough to allow the depression to
strengthen into a tropical storm. Afterwards, upper-level outflow
from Franklin will likely strip away its convection and inhibit any
further intensification. The depression is forecast to become
post-tropical shortly before it becomes absorbed in about 72 h by
the broader circulation associated with Franklin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 28.2N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 28.6N  52.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 29.4N  52.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 30.4N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 32.0N  52.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 34.0N  51.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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