[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

Major Hurricane Franklin is centered near 30.8N 70.4W at 29/1500
UTC or 300 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently up to 37
ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm
of the center. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion with
a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to
the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday. Life-threatening surf and
rip currents generated by Franklin are already affecting Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States. These conditions are
expected to continue during the next several days. Steady
weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Franklin
will remain a hurricane through late this week.

Hurricane Idalia is centered near 24.6N 84.8W at 29/1500 UTC or
100 nm W of the Dry Tortugas, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are expected to reach 24
ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is evident within 200
nm in the semicircle and 360 nm in the S semicircle. A faster
motion toward the north and north-northeast is expected through
early Wednesday while Idalia approaches the Gulf coast of Florida.
A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is forecast late
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the center of Idalia near or
along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Rapid
intensification is expected before landfall, and Idalia is
forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Gulf coast of
Florida Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall will continue across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides. Latest 24 hour rainfall totals are
reaching 9 in over Isla de la Juventud, and 8 in over Pinar del
Rio. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be
locally significant, are expected across portions of the west
coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia
through Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern
Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.

Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 27.9N 51.4W at
29/1500 UTC or 740 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are expected to
reach 10 ft within the area of strongest winds. Scattered
moderate convection prevails from 26N to 30N between 46W-52W. A
slightly faster and generally northward motion is expected
Wednesday and Thursday. Some slight strengthening is possible
during the next day or so, and the depression could become a
tropical storm later today or tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin, Idalia, and T.D. Eleven NHC Forecasts/Advisories and
Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from
02N-19N and E of 23W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form later in the week while the system moves
west- northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. This system has a low chance for tropical development in
48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic along 46W, from 17N southward,
moving W at around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident
with this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 61W,
from 17N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 09N to 15N between 56W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Africa
near 14N17W to 13N36W. All nearby convection is described in the
Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Idalia whose center is to the NW of the western tip of
Cuba.

Weak anticyclonic flow in the western Gulf with cyclonic flow
associated with Idalia dominating the remainder of the basin.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters away from Idalia.
Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf W of 91W and also N of 28N with the
remainder of the basin dominated by seas generated by Idalia.

For the forecast, Hurricane Idalia will move to 26.5N 84.6W this
evening, 29.3N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 31.8N 81.7W Wed evening, then will be N of
area near 33.5N 78.8W Thu morning. High pressure and improving
conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia by Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Idalia whose center is to the NW of the western tip of
Cuba.

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a
tropical wave affecting the Leeward Islands.

High pressure ridging extends from E to W just N of the basin
along 23N with moderate to fresh E-SE winds dominating the
Caribbean away from the influence of Idalia, except light to
gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside the
influence of Idalia, except for 1-2 ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds associated with
the cyclonic circulation of Idalia will continue to affect the NW
Caribbean with seas of 8 to 12 ft, highest near the south coast
of Pinar Rio and W of the Isle of Youth. Conditions will gradually
improve today and tonight. Elsewhere, expect increasing trades
and seas over the south-central Caribbean the remainder of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Major
Hurricane Franklin, T.D. Eleven, and on Hurricane Idalia in the
far SE Gulf of Mexico forecast to impact the waters off the SE
United States.

Scattered moderate convection is evident from 20N to 28N between
56W and 62W due to the influence of a mid to upper level feature.

Away from the influence of Franklin, gentle to moderate winds
dominate the open waters to the SW N Atlantic. The only exception
is N of 18N and E of 30W where fresh to strong NE winds are
offshore northern Africa due to a persistent tight pressure
gradient over the region. Seas are 6-10 ft in that area. Seas are
3-6 ft across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Franklin will move N of area to near
32.0N 69.6W this evening. Meanwhile, Hurricane Idalia will move
to 26.5N 84.6W this evening, 29.3N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland
and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.8N 81.7W Wed evening, 33.5N
78.8W Thu morning, 34.1N 75.6W Thu evening, and 33.8N 73.0W Fri
morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 32.5N 70.2W early Sat. Expect increasing winds and building
seas E of Florida beginning late tonight as Idalia moves across
the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
ERA
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