[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL102023
1136 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

This product covers East Central Florida

**Idalia Strengthening, Moving Steadily Northward**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Volusia,
      Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland
      Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard,
      Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Northern Lake, Orange,
      Osceola, Seminole, Southern Brevard Barrier Islands, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL
    - 24.6N 84.8W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement North or 5 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Hurricane Idalia is located around 120 miles west of
the Dry Tortugas late this morning. Idalia currently has maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph and is moving north at 14 mph. A faster
northward motion is expected through tonight, with an eventual turn to
the north-northeast into Wednesday. Idalia is forecast to cross the
Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday as a major hurricane. Local
preparations should be nearing completion ahead of local tropical
storm conditions by tonight and into Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Lake, Osceola, Orange,
Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard counties. For the Atlantic waters, a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of Sebastian Inlet.

Showers and squalls associated with outer rain bands from Idalia
should reach central Florida later this afternoon, with conditions
deteriorating further tonight and Wednesday as Idalia accelerates
north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The possibility
of strong to damaging wind gusts in squalls will increase as tropical
storm force winds extend well east of the storm's center. Based on the
current forecast track, Idalia will make its closest pass to east-
central Florida late tonight and early Wednesday morning, continuing
northeastward during the day on Wednesday. Even as Idalia moves north
of the area on Wednesday, conditions will remain quite windy. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for portions of the area through Wednesday
evening.

While the heaviest rainfall from Idalia is forecast to fall along the
Gulf Coast and western Florida Peninsula, gusty squalls will be
capable of torrential downpours, beginning this afternoon and
continuing into Wednesday. Around one to one and one-half inches of
rain is forecast for coastal areas and Okeechobee County from today
through Wednesday night, and two to four inches is forecast west of
I-95 from Brevard and Osceola Counties northward, with locally higher
amounts possible. Locations in closer proximity to the center of
Idalia, generally along and west of Interstate Four in east- central
Florida, may receive higher rainfall totals.

In addition to strong wind gusts, a threat for tornadoes is forecast
to develop late this afternoon, continuing into Wednesday.

Incoming Atlantic swell from Major Hurricane Franklin, combined with
winds from Idalia, will lead to high seas, rough surf, an increase in
life-threatening rip currents, and beach erosion during high tides
through Wednesday.

Do not let your guard down. Impacts from Idalia will be felt far from
the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure that preparations
are nearing completion and your safety plan is in place.

Some additional adjustments to the current forecast track remain
possible as the storm becomes better organized. Any slight eastward
adjustments in the forecast track would increase the potential for
local impacts, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne,
Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Some damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Several large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages are possible,
      especially in areas with above-ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across east central Florida. Potential
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* SURGE:
Direct surge impacts from Idalia are not currently anticipated at
this time. However, larger swells and surf combined with Hurricane
Franklin will bring a threat for minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion. Locations more vulnerable to coastal flooding and beach
erosion, such as portions of the Volusia and Brevard county coast,
should stay updated on the latest information.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended actions.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Schaper
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