[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 291534
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-292345-

Hurricane Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL102023
1134 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 /1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been
      upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Inland Wakulla and Leon
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Decatur, Mitchell,
      Turner, and Worth

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Brooks, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla, Lafayette,
      Lanier, Leon, Lowndes, and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ben Hill, Berrien,
      Coastal Gulf, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Gadsden, Grady, Inland
      Franklin, Inland Gulf, Irwin, Liberty, Mitchell, Thomas, Tift,
      Turner, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 350 miles south of Apalachicola or about 380 miles south
      of St Marks
    - 24.6N 84.8W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement North or 5 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Preparations in advance of Hurricane Idalia need to be rushed to
completion by sunset this evening.

Hurricane Idalia continued to strengthen this morning. At 11 AM EDT,
the center of Idalia was located over the southeast Gulf of Mexico
about 380 miles south of Saint Marks Florida. Idalia is moving to the
north at 14 mph. Idalia now has top sustained winds of 85 mph. Idalia
will rapidly strengthen today, and strengthening is expected all the
way up to landfall. Idalia is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall along the Big Bend Coast on Wednesday.

To put this into historical context, there are NO major hurricanes in
the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have tracked into
Apalachee Bay. This has the makings of an unprecedented event for this
part of the state.

Your final preparations need to be finished before sunset this
evening. If you have been ordered to evacuate, leave today before
sunset. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate late tonight and Wednesday
morning.

Life-threatening storm surge is expected around the shores of
Apalachee Bay. Storm surge will be highly dependent on the storm
track, with the highest surge values along and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Storm surge could start to build as soon as
this afternoon, with peak surge values coming tonight and Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Indian Pass to the Suwannee
River for the danger of life threatening inundation from rising water
moving inland. Storm surge inundation above normally dry ground could
reach the following heights, if the peak surge occurs with high tide:
1 to 3 feet from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, 3 to 5 feet from Indian
Pass to Carrabelle, 4 to 7 feet from Carrabelle to the mouth of the
Ochlockonee River, 6 to 9 feet from the Ochlockonee River to the
Aucilla River, and 10 to 15 feet from the Aucilla River to the
Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur along the immediate
coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Big Bend, where
residents need to prepare for a major hurricane with sustained winds
over 110 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Indian Pass to the
Suwannee River, plus inland portions of the Florida Big Bend and the
I-75 corridor of far south Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, plus inland portions of
Southwest Georgia as far northwest as Bainbridge, Camilla, and
Sylvester.

Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive along the coast
after midnight tonight, though brief increases to tropical storm force
in rain bands are possible starting early this evening. Preparations
for Idalia need to be completed before sunset. Expect downed trees and
powerlines, possibly widespread in the Big Bend region, with prolonged
power outages possible. Ensure you have enough supplies to last for
several days.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of
Idalia, especially in the eastern Florida Big Bend, where 5 to
8 inches of rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts possible.
This could lead to life threatening flash flooding. A Flood Watch is
in effect from Gulf County, FL to Lee County, GA and all points
eastward. River flooding is possible in the Ochlockonee and Aucilla
basins, but fast forward motion of the storms will keep river flooding
minor.

Several tornadoes are possible in the outer rain bands starting
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. This will primarily be north
and east of the center.

Life-threatening rip currents and high surf are expected along all
beaches for at least the next couple days, well away from and
following the center. Everyone needs to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible catastrophic
impacts across the coastal Big Bend  of Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.


Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no surge
impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Big Bend and Southwest Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.


* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Big Bend and the I-75 corridor of south
Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama,
little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes. Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone.
Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself
cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation
orders issued by the local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on
a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong
winds or flooding. A boat is no place to ride out a hurricane.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net