[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Aug 29 10:22:38 CDT 2023

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Hurricane Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL  AL102023
1122 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**IDALIA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED
WITH LANDFALL**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal
      Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, Inland Citrus, and
      Pinellas
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Sarasota
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Hernando, Inland
      Hillsborough, Inland Levy, Inland Manatee, Inland Pasco, and
      Sumter
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Sarasota
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for DeSoto, Hardee,
      Inland Charlotte, Inland Lee, and Polk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 330 miles south-southwest of Cedar Key FL or about 240
      miles south-southwest of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL
    - 24.6N 84.8W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement North or 5 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Idalia is continuing to intensify as it moves north and
eventually northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
Wednesday. Catastrophic storm surge will accompany the storm as it
makes landfall. Watches and Warnings remain in effect for West Central
and Southwest Florida and the adjacent coastal waters.

The following are the primary hazards of concern with Idalia:

* Storm Surge - Areas across the northern Nature Coast could see
  catastrophic levels of storm surge, with life-threatening surge also
  possible across west-central Florida. The main period of surge looks
  to occur late this afternoon through early Thursday. Storm surge
  inundation could reach 10 to 15 feet along the Levy county coastline,
  8 to 12 across the Citrus County coastline, 6 to 9 feet along the
  Hernando and Pasco county coastlines, 4 to 7 feet for the Pinellas,
  Hillsborough, and Manatee county coastlines, 3 to 5 feet along the
  Sarasota county coast, and 2 to 4 feet along Charlotte and Lee
  counties.

* Wind - Winds will start to increase through the day today, with
  hurricane force winds possible across much of the area, especially
  near the coast. Idalia is forecast to intensify into a major
  hurricane. Tropical storm force winds will be possible across the
  southern zones. Rush to completion any preparedness activities this
  morning. Downed trees and powerlines, with prolonged power outages
  will be possible.

* Rainfall - Rain bands from Idalia will lift over the area today as
the storm approaches, with the more consistent tropical rains with the
storm possible later today through Wednesday. A slight to moderate
risk for flooding is possible, mainly along the coast and across the
northern zones, closer to the center of the storm. Rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches is possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible catastrophic
impacts across Levy County. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to devastating impacts across the rest of Nature Coast and
West Central Florida.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Southwest Florida.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many
      road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes
      demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted,
      vehicles tumbled, and boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles
      can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 6PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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