[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 291448
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023

Visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate
that the area of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic
has become better defined.  Deep convection associated with the
system has persisted since yesterday, but it is located over the
eastern side of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear.  The
ASCAT data revealed believable peak winds of around 30 kt, and that
is the basis for the initial intensity for this advisory.  Guidance
suggests that the shear could decrease slightly in the short term
which could allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast
follows that scenario and calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, the
shear is forecast to increase markedly and no additional
strengthening is indicated.  By 72 hours, the system is forecast to
become post-tropical, and dissipation is indicated by 96 hours.
Both of those events could occur sooner than indicated below.

The depression is currently moving slowly northward or 360/2 kt.  A
slow north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the
day or so as a mid-level ridge currently to the north of the
depression slides eastward.  After that time, a slightly faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone
is steered between the aforementioned ridge and Hurricane Franklin
to its west.  The NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected
consensus and the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 27.9N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 28.3N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 28.9N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 29.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 30.8N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 32.5N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 35.0N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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