[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

The center of CATEGORY FOUR Hurricane Franklin, at
29/0600 UTC, is near 29.8N 71.0W. This position also is
about 355 nm/655 km to the WSW of Bermuda. FRANKLIN is
moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 08 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 130 knots with gusts
to 160 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within
130 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 90 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. Hurricane-force winds are:
within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
25 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 20 nm
of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea
heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 220 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 37 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 100 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the
NE semicircle. The hazards that are forecast to affect
land are: surf and wind.

Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 22.6N 85.0W at 29/0600
UTC or 50 nm N of the western tip of Cuba, moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Tropical storm-force
winds are: within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
130 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 50 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 50 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or
greater is: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 19 feet. The
hazards that are forecast to affect land are: storm surge, wind,
rainfall, and surf. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 125
nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong covers the rest of the inland and water areas
that are from Nicaragua northward between Jamaica and the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 80W
and 84W, in Florida and in the surrounding waters.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Please, refer to
the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information
about Tropical Storm Idalia and Hurricane FRANKLIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from
18N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 02N to 10N between 34W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from
17N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 09N to 17N between 50W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders
of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 10N30W, and 07N44W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from
07N to 20N from 20W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the
Yucatan Channel.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. All the
action is centering around the expectations of Tropical
Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.
A surface trough passes through south central Louisiana
to the upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N
northward between 87W and 94W.

The sea heights are reaching: 6 feet and higher in the
SE corner; from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from 90W
eastward; 3 feet in the west central Gulf; 1 foot off
the coast of the middle Texas Gulf coast; 2 feet elsewhere.
Moderate or slower wind speeds are everywhere.

Tropical Storm Idalia is near 22.0N 85.0W at 11 PM
EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 983 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane
near 23.7N 85.0W Tue morning, move to 26.2N 84.6W Tue evening,
29.0N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 31.5N 81.6W Wed evening, 33.2N 78.8W Thu morning,
and 34.0N 76.0W Thu evening. Idalia will change little in
intensity as it moves to 33.5N 72.0W late Fri. High pressure
and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia
late in the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Idalia, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.

The sea heights are reaching: from 2 feet to 4 feet from 80W
eastward, except for 1 foot in the coastal waters in the SW
corner of the area; and from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere from
80W westward, away from T.S. Idalia. Mostly moderate to some
fresh SE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh
SE winds are in the northern half of the central one-third
of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere between
70W and 80W.

Tropical Storm Idalia is near 22.0N 85.0W at 11 PM EDT, and
is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
983 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 23.7N
85.0W Tue morning, move to 26.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 29.0N
83.7W Wed morning and continuing to move away from the
Caribbean basin. As Idalia moves farther N into the Gulf
of Mexico on Tue, conditions will improve in the
NW Caribbean. High pressure will build westward across
the western Atlantic through Thu as Hurricane Franklin
lifts north of the region. This will lead to moderate to
fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean by tonight,
then in the central Caribbean by Tue, locally strong
there.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Hurricane Franklin.

A 1016 mb low pressure center (AL92) is near 28N52W. A surface
trough is along 29N45W, to the low pressure center, to 27N56W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 26N to 28N between
50W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N
northward between 44W and 60W. Recent satellite wind data also
indicates that its circulation has become better defined.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
development over the next couple of days before becoming more
unfavorable by the latter part of this week as the system drifts
slowly over the central subtropical Atlantic.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is from 21N to 24N between
56W and 63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 20N to 28N between 55W and 66W.

Strong or faster NE winds are within 600 nm to the southeast of
the line 34N19W 28N26W 20N30W. Fresh winds are from 22N from 63W
westward, around the periphery of Hurricane Franklin. Moderate
NE winds are within 360 nm to the south of the line 23N36W
17N53W.
Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 10 feet from 20N northward from 30W
eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the
area that is from 25N northward from 40W eastward.
Precipitation: all the precipitation is from 31N northward
between 20W and 40W.

Major Hurricane Franklin is near 29.4N 71.0W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
130 kt with gusts to 160 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 926 mb. Franklin will move to 30.5N 70.8W
Tue morning, moving N of the area 32.1N 69.7W Tue evening,
then to 33.9N 67.7W Wed morning when outer associated
conditions will lift N of 31N. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm
Idalia is near the Yucatan Channel near 22.0N 85.0W at
11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 983 mb. Idalia will strengthen to
a hurricane in the SE Gulf Tue morning, move to 29.0N
83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 31.5N 81.6W Wed evening, 33.2N 78.8W Thu
morning, and 34.0N 76.0W Thu evening. Idalia will
change little in intensity as it moves to 33.5N 72.0W
late Fri. Expect increasing winds and building seas
E of Florida beginning Tue night as Idalia moves across
the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
mt/jl
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