[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Franklin is centered near 28.1N 71.1W at 28/1800
UTC or 400 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are currently around 33
ft. A well-defined eye is apparent in satellite imagery and
numerous moderate to strong convection is evident within 75 nm of
the center with numerous moderate elsewhere within 150 nm of the
center. The northward to north-northeastward motion with a
slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to
pass well to the west of Bermuda on Wednesday. Additional
strengthening is possible today, but gradual weakening is
expected to begin later Tuesday. Swells, life-threatening surf and
rip currents generated by Franklin are beginning to affect
Bermuda and the coast of the southeast United States and are
expected to spread northward along the east coast of the United
States and, Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 21.2N 85.1W at 28/1800
UTC or 40 nm SSW of the western tip of Cuba, moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is evident
within 135 nm in the SE semicircle and 45 nm in the NW semicircle.
Scattered moderate convection is evident elsewhere within 210 nm
in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in the NW semicircle. Additional
deep convection is noted in a bands covering the NW Caribbean Sea,
west of 81W. A northward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast
to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday. Idalia is forecast to become a
hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is
expected across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of
flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across western
Cuba. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be
locally significant, are expected across portions of the west
coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia
Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern
Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Idalia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south
of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near
the southern portion of the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N and between 50W and
56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and
08N45W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N
and east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Idalia, currently entering the Yucatan Channel.

A weak stationary front is draped across the NW Gulf of Mexico
producing a few showers. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough is
analyzed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico generating some showers and
isolated thunderstorms. An outer rainband of Idalia is seen on
satellite imagery off SW Florida. Lastly, a weak surface trough in
the Bay of Campeche allows for isolated to scattered shower
activity. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail across
most of the Gulf, except for the SE Gulf where Idalia is inducing
stronger winds and higher seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 20.8N 85.2W at 11 AM EDT,
and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb.
Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 22.0N 85.2W this
evening, move to 23.9N 85.1W Tue morning, 26.4N 84.6W Tue
evening, 29.2N 83.5W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 31.9N 81.2W Wed evening, and 33.6N 78.0W Thu
morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 34.6N 71.2W early Fri. High pressure and improving
conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia late in the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Idalia, currently entering the Yucatan Channel.

Outside of Idalia, high pressure aloft in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea results in subsidence, keeping the region devoid of
deep convection. However, this pattern also allows for temperatures
above normal. A heat advisory is in effect for portions of Puerto
Rico. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds were captured
by a recent scatterometer satellite pass in the eastern and
central Caribbean, while light to gentle winds prevail in the SW
Caribbean. Seas are slight to moderate ft in the eastern and
central Caribbean and slight ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 20.8N 85.2W at 11 AM
EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990
mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 22.0N 85.2W this
evening, move to 23.9N 85.1W Tue morning, 26.4N 84.6W Tue evening,
29.2N 83.5W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 31.9N 81.2W Wed evening, and 33.6N 78.0W Thu morning.
Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to near 34.6N
71.2W early Fri. Other than Idalia, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the basin E of 80W through early Mon. High
pressure will build westward across the western Atlantic late Mon
through Thu as Hurricane Franklin lifts north of the region.
This will lead to moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
Caribbean by Mon night, then in the central Caribbean by Tue,
locally strong there.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia.

Outside of Franklin, a 1034 mb subtropical ridge positioned a
few hundred miles to the northeast of the Azores dominates the
eastern and central Atlantic. A couple of surface troughs are
noted in the central Atlantic, producing isolated to scattered
moderate convection north of 18N and between 47W and 65W. Latest
satellite-derived wind data suggests that fresh to strong winds
are present with the strongest convection. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent west of 25W.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and
lower pressures in NW Africa result in fresh to gale-force
northerly winds east of 25W and north of 16N. The gale-force winds
may be occurring in the water passages of the Canary Islands based
on a scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago. Seas in
these waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Franklin is near 27.8N 71.0W
at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 937 mb. Franklin will move to 29.0N 71.2W this
evening, 30.7N 70.8W Tue morning, and N of the forecast region
near 32.5N 69.6W Tue evening. Then, Franklin will continue to move
northward away from the area. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia is
near 20.8N 85.2W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a
hurricane near 22.0N 85.2W this evening, move to 23.9N 85.1W Tue
morning, 26.4N 84.6W Tue evening, 29.2N 83.5W Wed morning, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.9N 81.2W Wed
evening, and 33.6N 78.0W Thu morning. Idalia will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 34.6N 71.2W early Fri. Expect
increasing winds and seas offshore of central and northern Florida
with the passage of Idalia.

$$
DELGADO
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