[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 281535
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-282345-

Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL102023
1135 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 /1035 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
      and the Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor,
      and Coastal Wakulla
    - The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
      for Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, and Madison
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, and Leon
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Coastal Franklin,
      Inland Franklin, and Liberty
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Brooks and Thomas
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lanier and Lowndes

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal
      Wakulla
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Dixie, Inland
      Taylor, Lafayette, and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Franklin
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Franklin,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Leon, and Liberty
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Brooks and Thomas
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lanier and Lowndes

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles south of Steinhatchee River
    - 20.8N 85.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 11 AM EDT, Idalia has begun moving northward at 8 MPH and
Maximum sustained winds remain at 65 mph. Idalia is expected to
strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane on Tuesday over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Idalia is forecast to make landfall early
Wednesday along the nature coast as a major hurricane.

The potential for life-threatening storm surge around the shores of
Apalachee Bay continues to increase. Storm surge will be highly
dependent on the storm track, with the highest surge values along and
to the right of the center. Storm surge could start to build as soon
as Tuesday afternoon, with peak surge values coming on Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from the Ochlockonee River to
the Suwanee River for the danger of life threatening inundation from
rising water moving inland. A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect from
Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River for the possibility of life
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland. Storm surge
inundation above normally dry ground could reach the following
heights, if the peak surge occurs with high tide: 2 to 4 feet from
Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, 4 to 7 feet from the Ochlockonee
River to the Aucilla River, and 7 to 11 feet from the Aucilla River to
the Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur along the immediate
coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

In addition, the odds of hurricane force winds are increasing over the
southeast Big Bend Region into the lower I-75 corridor of Southwest
Georgia, and the forecast hurricane intensity at landfall remains
steady since the last advisory, with Idalia expected to be a major
hurricane at landfall. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from the
Ochlockonee River to the Suwanee River, including inland portions of
the eastern Florida Big Bend. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in
effect from Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, including much of
the remainder of the Western Florida Big Bend. Meanwhile, Tropical
Storm and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for the lower
I-75 corridor of Georgia.

Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive along the coast
on Tuesday evening, but they could arrive as early as Tuesday
afternoon. It is recommended that preparations for Idalia be completed
before sunset on Tuesday, if not sooner. Expect downed trees and
powerlines, with prolonged power outages possible.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of
Idalia, especially in the eastern Florida Big Bend, where 5 to
10 inches of rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts possible.
This could lead to life threatening flash flooding. The storm should
be moving fast enough to preclude river flooding at this time.
Scattered tornadoes are possible in the Southeast Florida Big Bend,
where a strong tornado is possible. Life-threatening rip currents will
affect beaches well away from the core of the storm.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts across Wakulla and Jefferson Counties.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across coastal Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible limited to
extensive impacts across the remainder of the Florida Big Bend.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts in the far eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest and south
central Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the eastern and coastal Big Bend and Lowndes and Lanier Counties in
Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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