[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL102023
534 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023


This product covers East Central Florida

**Tropical Storm Idalia Forecast to Strengthen into a Hurricane as
it Moves Into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico Later Today**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
  - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange, Osceola, and
    Seminole

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
  - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake, Orange,
    Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
  - About 640 miles south-southwest of Leesburg  FL
  - 20.1N 85.2W  - Storm Intensity 65 mph
  - Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph


SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Tropical Storm Idalia is located around 125 miles
south of the tip of western Cuba early this morning. Idalia is
moving north at about 7 mph, with a continued northward motion
expected today and Tuesday. The storm is currently forecast to
approach the Florida Gulf coast Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
major hurricane.
Preparations should be ongoing for at least tropical storm
conditions by mid week.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange
and Osceola Counties, where confidence is highest in tropical storm
conditions occurring. Additional watches may be necessary for
portions of east-central Florida later this morning.

Showers, squalls and thunderstorms associated with outer rain bands
from Idalia may reach central Florida by late this afternoon, with
conditions further deteriorating Tuesday afternoon and evening as
Idalia accelerates north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. As coverage of showers and squalls increases Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday, the possibility of strong to damaging wind
gusts will also increase. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to
extend outward from the storm's center, potentially reaching
interior portions of east-central Florida Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
Based on the current forecast track, Idalia will make its closest
pass to east-central Florida late Tuesday night and early Wednesday
morning, continuing northeastward during the day on Wednesday.

While the heaviest rainfall from Idalia is currently forecast to
fall along the Gulf Coast and western Florida Peninsula, gusty
squalls will be capable of torrential downpours, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday over Lake County. One to two inches of rain from
Monday afternoon through Wednesday night is expected for coastal
areas and Okeechobee County and two to four inches are expected west
of I-95 from Brevard and Osceola Counties northward, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Locations in closer proximity to the center of Idalia, such as Lake
County in east-central Florida, may receive higher rainfall totals.

In addition to strong wind gusts, a threat for tornadoes is forecast
to develop as the center of Idalia moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Incoming swell from Hurricane Franklin combined with winds from
Idalia will lead to high seas, rough surf, an increase in life-
threatening rip currents, and beach erosion Tuesday into Wednesday.

Do not let your guard down, especially in locations outside of the
current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from Idalia will be felt far
from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your
hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place.

As Idalia becomes better organized through this afternoon,
additional changes to the current forecast are possible. Eastward
shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for local
impacts, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne,
Florida.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant
  impacts across portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts
  in this area include:

    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes
      damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects
      become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences
      and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.


* FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having
  possible significant impacts across portions of east central
  Florida. Potential impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
      at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
      retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
      Some road and bridge closures.


* TORNADOES: Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible
  significant impacts across portions of east central Florida.
  Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of
      emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.


* SURGE: Direct surge impacts from Idalia are not currently
  anticipated at this time. However, larger swells and surf combined
  with Hurricane Franklin will bring a threat for minor coastal
  flooding and beach erosion.Locations more vulnerable to coastal
  flooding and beach erosion, such as portions of the Volusia County
  coast, should stay updated on the latest forecasts.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Listen to local official for recommended preparedness
  actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do
  so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your
  emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary
  actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be
concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The
onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain
preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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