[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL102023
515 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 /415 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

...IDALIA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Jefferson,
      Inland Wakulla, and Leon
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Madison

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Jefferson,
      Inland Wakulla, and Leon
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor,
      Lafayette, and Madison

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 670 miles south of Steinhatchee River
    - 20.1N 85.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Idalia continued to meander around the Yucatan
CHannel while gaining strength overnight.

At 5 AM EDT, the center of Idalia was located about 700 miles south of
Steinhatchee, Florida. Maximum sustained winds have increased to
65 mph.

Idalia is expected to begin moving northward while increasing its
forward speed today. Idalia will continue to strengthen and is
expected to become a major hurricane on Tuesday over the eastern Gulf.
Idalia is forecast to make landfall later Tuesday night along the
nature coast.

The potential for life-threatening storm surge around the shores of
Apalachee Bay continues to increase. Storm surge will be highly
dependent on the storm track, with the highest surge values along and
to the right of the center. Storm surge could start to build as soon
as Tuesday afternoon, with peak surge values coming on Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the possibility of life
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland for much of
Apalachee Bay, from Indian Pass to the Suwannee River. Storm surge
inundation above normally dry ground could reach the following
heights, if the peak surge occurs with high tide: 2 to 4 feet from
Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, 4 to 7 feet from the Ochlockonee
River to the Aucilla River, and 7 to 11 feet from the Aucilla River to
the Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur along the immediate
coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

In addition, the odds of hurricane force winds are increasing over the
southeast Big Bend Region, and the forecast hurricane intensity at
landfall has increased since the last advisory. Idalia is now forecast
to be a major hurricane at landfall. A Hurricane Watch is in effect
from Indian Pass to the Suwannee River, including inland portions of
Taylor, Dixie, Lafayette, and Madison Counties. A Tropical Storm watch
has been issued for inland Jefferson and Wakulla, as well as Leon
counties.

Flooding from heavy rainfall and an isolated tornado are possible.
Life-threatening rip currents will affect beaches well away from the
core of the storm.

Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive along the coast
on Tuesday evening, but they could arrive as early as Tuesday
afternoon. It is recommended that preparations for Idalia be completed
before sunset on Tuesday, if not sooner. Expect downed trees and
powerlines, with prolonged power outages possible.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of
Idalia, especially in the Florida Big Bend, where 4 to 8 inches of
rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts possible. This could
lead to flash flooding. The storm should be moving fast enough to
preclude river flooding at this time.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts across Wakulla and Jefferson Counties.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Franklin and Gulf Counties.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across coastal Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible limited to
extensive impacts across the remainder of the Florida Big Bend.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts in the far eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest and south central
Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
eastern and coastal Big Bend and Lowndes and Lanier Counties in Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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