[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 270244
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show
that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with
spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center.
 This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered
deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas.  The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS.

The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an
initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located
to its north and northwest.  The system is expected to continue
meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36
hours.  After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to
begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the
southeastern coast of the U.S.  The updated NHC track forecast lies
on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows
the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids.

Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan
Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear
should support gradual strengthening during the next few days.  The
NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during
the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those
aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by
60 hours.  The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and
potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday.  Users are reminded to continue
monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected
intensity as it approaches Florida.  Land interaction and increasing
shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over
land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and
offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is
inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba.  The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week.  Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week.  Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 21.1N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 20.9N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 20.9N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 21.6N  85.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 23.1N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 25.0N  85.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 27.5N  84.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 32.7N  81.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/0000Z 35.2N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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