[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260853
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin: Tropical Storm Franklin is centered
near 22.8N 65.8W at 26/0900 UTC or 300 nm ENE of Grand Turk
Island, moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is evident within 240 nm in the NE semicircle
of Franklin, and elsewhere within 90 nm in the NW quadrant. A
sharp turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a
northward to north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic
through early next week. Steady strengthening is forecast, and
Franklin could become a hurricane within the next day or so.
Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Invest AL93: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure
(invest AL93) over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the N semicircle and
60 nm in the S semicircle of the low. Current winds are 20 kt
with seas of around 5 ft. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the
progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 21N
southward to across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at
around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted near the tropical
wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 12N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 04N to 11N between 33W and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W to 10N29W to 08N42W. No ITCZ is
evident. All nearby significant convection is described above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an area of
low pressure (invest AL93) currently in the NW Caribbean Sea and
forecast to move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico early next week.

Weak high pressure centered near 28.5N85.5W in the NE Gulf
dominates the basin, with gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 1-3
ft across the basin, except to 4 ft near the Yucatan Channel.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are across
the Gulf from 21N to 25N, as well as in the NE Gulf near Apalachee
Bay. Similar convection is near the Yucatan Channel from AL93.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered across the SE U.S.
will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing
gentle to moderate winds. Developing low pres over the NW
Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Expect increasing winds and seas over the eastern Gulf
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an area of
low pressure (invest AL93) currently in the NW Caribbean Sea and
forecast to move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico early next week.

Away from AL93, light to gentle winds under a weak pressure
pattern dominates the basin, along with 1-3 ft seas. Scattered
thunderstorms are evident from Puerto Rico to along and just S of
the coast of Hispaniola to between Cuba and Jamaica to the lee of
Cuba due to troughing around the far outer periphery of Tropical
Storm Franklin which is N of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic Ocean.
Scattered thunderstorms are also noted over and offshore eastern
Honduras where the Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is displaced well
to the N of its usual location.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the
S-central and NW Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across
the basin through the weekend as T.S. Franklin moves northward and
away from the Caribbean region. A developing area of low pres in
the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized
through the weekend, as it drifts northward across the NW
Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build
modestly to the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to
moderate to fresh trade winds, locally strong in the central
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Franklin.

A pesky stationary front lingers from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 26N to
29N between 76W and 78W. Moderate NE winds are W of the front.
Elsewhere W of 50W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 4-7
ft W of 55W, and 3-5 ft between 50W and 55W.

To the E, 1010 mb low pressure (invest AL92) is located near
24N48.5W. Winds are currently to 20 kt with 6-7 ft seas. Scattered
moderate convection is within 75 nm of the center. Similar
convection is found from 16N to 25N between 40W and 44W, and from
23N to 31N between 48W and 52W due to a mid to upper level
feature. A weak low pressure area is evident near 29N31.5W with NE
to SW troughing through the low. Winds are moderate to locally
fresh NW of the low and trough with 4-5 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas in mainly long period SE-S swell
dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, Franklin will move to 23.4N 66.0W
this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 66.6W Sun
morning, 26.0N 67.7W Sun afternoon, 27.5N 68.6W Mon morning, 29.3N
68.8W Mon afternoon, and 31.0N 68.7W Tue morning. Franklin will
change little in intensity as it moves well N of the area to
34.8N 66.2W early Wed. High pressure will build westward across
the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds may increase
offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a low pres system moves
N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
Lewitsky
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