[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 260849
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

Franklin is gradually getting better organized.  During the past
couple of days, deep convection has been mainly confined to the east
of the center.  However, there has been a change recently with the
convective pattern becoming a little more symmetric, likely due to a
decrease in vertical wind shear.  The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.5/55 kt, and the initial intensity
is raised to that value.

The storm is still moving east-northeastward at 6 kt, but a sharp
northward turn is expected to occur later today as a ridge builds to
the east of the system over the central Atlantic.  A northward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days as
the storm moves along the western periphery of the ridge, taking it
to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday.  By the middle of next week, a
faster northeastward motion is expected when Franklin moves in the
flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Canada and the northeastern U.S.  The track models have shifted to
the west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast follows that theme
and is a little slower than the previous one at days 4 and 5.

Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days
as the vertical wind shear becomes light while the storm remains
over warm water and in a relatively moist environment.  Franklin
will likely become a hurricane by tonight and possibly a major
hurricane early next week.  The strengthening trend should end in 3
to 4 days when the shear is expected to increase and weakening
should commence in 4 to 5 days when Franklin is forecast to move
over much cooler waters.  The intensity models are higher this
cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward, close to the
IVCN and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 22.8N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 23.4N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 24.6N  66.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 26.0N  67.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 27.5N  68.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 29.3N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 31.0N  68.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 34.8N  66.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 39.9N  58.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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