[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN: Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near
21.9N 67.0W at 25/2100 UTC or 220 nm E of Grand Turk Island,
moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Franklin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with numerous
moderate isolated strong convection evident within within 300 nm
in the E semicircle. Peak seas are analyzed at 15 ft with the 12
ft seas extending 90 nm in the E semicircle and 75 nm in the NW
quadrant. Franklin will continue moving ENE through tonight.
A sharp turn toward the north, with an increase in forward speed
is expected on Saturday, with a northward or north- northwestward
motion over the western Atlantic continuing through early next
week. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin will likely
become a hurricane early next week. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO (AL93):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized,
with increasing thunderstorm activity and a better-defined low-
level circulation. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 19N to 25N between 80W and 88W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance has a MEDIUM
chance of development through 48 hours and HIGH chance in 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W, from 21N southward, moving west at
an uncertain 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 18N between 20W and 24W.

A tropical wave is along 38W, from 11N southward, moving west at
an uncertain 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
09N between 35W and 43W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near Dakar, Senegal,
at 14N17W and continues to 05N43W. Convection is described in the
tropical waves section. No ITCZ is analyzed.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with
scattered thunderstorms within 30 nm of the trough axis. A trough
also extends off the Louisiana coast with isolated thunderstorms
within 50 nm of it. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in
the Yucatan Channel due to AL93. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds prevail, turning to the NE then the NW around the trough in
the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered across the SE U.S.
will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing
gentle to moderate winds. Developing low pres over the NW
Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized as it
drifts northward over the NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel over
the weekend, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week as this system enters a favorable environment across
the eastern Gulf. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on AL93.

Strong thunderstorms are noted across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and
Puerto Rico. Outside of that, the main convection is associated
with AL93. Light to gentle trades prevail across the Caribbean
amid a diffuse pressure gradient, with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the
S central and SE Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across
the basin through the weekend as T.S. Franklin moves northward and
away from the Caribbean region. A developing area of low pres in
the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized
through the weekend, as it drifts northward across the NW
Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build
modestly to the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to
moderate to fresh trade winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm FRANKLIN.

A stationary front enters the TAFB waters near 31N69W to 1010 mb
low pressure near 23N75W. A trough extends southwest of the low
across the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail north of
the front. A weak surface trough is along 52W, from 22N to 27N.
Scattered moderate convection ahead of a cold front in the eastern
Atlantic is noted from 27N to 31N between 26W and 34W. The
dominance of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure is interrupted
by several midlatitude cyclones moving across the Atlantic north
of the TAFB waters. As a result, the pressure gradient across the
basin is rather diffuse, with light to gentle trades noted
everywhere. Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin is near
21.9N 67.0W at 5 PM EDT, moving east-northeast at 5 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kT. Minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Franklin will move to 22.0N 66.5W Sat
morning, 22.8N 66.6W Sat afternoon, 23.8N 66.9W Sun morning, 25.4N
67.7W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 27.3N 68.5W
Mon morning, to near 29.2N 68.9W Mon afternoon, then move N-NE and
exit the area to the north on Tue. High pressure will build
westward across the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds
may increase offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a low pres
system moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
AReinhart
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