[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250844
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 22.7N 68.0W at 25/0900
UTC or 190 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving ENE at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Franklin remains a
sheared tropical cyclone with numerous moderate scattered strong
convection evident within within 420 nm in the E and SE quadrants.
Peak seas are current around 22 ft. A sharp turn toward
the north is expected tonight and Saturday, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing
through early next week. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and
Franklin will likely become a hurricane over the weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean near 43W/45W,
from 22N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave has 1009 mb
low pressure (AL92) along it near 19.5N43.5W. Numerous moderate
convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 41W and 45W. Fresh to
locally strong winds and 6-8 ft seas are near the low. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for development in a few
days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while the system moves generally northwestward toward the central
subtropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=altc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the Senegal
coast 14.5N17W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N34W
to 08N48W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 14N between the coast of Africa and 32W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 33W
and 40W, and from 07N to 12N between 45W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A large elongated upper-level low along with it associated
surface trough over the southwestern Gulf are triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the central Gulf W of 87W, and
the Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are found
in the eastern Gulf, as well as near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds dominate the basin, except NW near the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico W of the surface trough. Seas are 1-3 ft
across the NE half of the basin, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pres over the NW Caribbean Sea
is forecast to move generally northward over the NW Caribbean Sea
and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=altc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near the northeastern coast of Honduras is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Convergent westerly winds are
causing isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and the Windward
Passage, and over southern Hispaniola. Converging easterly winds
are generating similar conditions near the Colombia coast. Gentle
to moderate winds are from the ENE to SE at the northwestern
basin, and NE to ENE at the southeastern basin. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the rest of the basin, while 1-3 ft seas are
evident for the entire basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the
S-central and SE Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across
the basin through the weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pres
in the NW Caribbean Sea is forecast to move generally northward
over the NW Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=altc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Franklin.

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on a
1009 mb low (AL92) along a tropical wave near 19.5N43.5W.

A stationary front southwest of Bermuda curves southwestward
across 31N70W to 1010 mb low pressure near 27.5N74.5W, continuing
as a dissipating cold front to near West Palm Beach, Florida.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms exist up to 60 nm
along either side of these features. Convergent southerly winds
are inducing scattered moderate convection north of 29N between
53W and 56W. A 1010 mb low pressure, the remnants of Gert near
16N59W is generating scattered moderate convection from 09N to 17N
between 56W and 61W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds, locally strong, and seas of 5
to 8 ft are seen near and north of the stationary/cold front.
Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Franklin, light to gentle
winds and 3-6 ft seas are present from north of 20N between 50W
and the stationary/cold front/Bahamas. Farther east, gentle with
locally moderate winds and seas at 4-7 ft exist north of 20N
between the northwest Africa coast and 50W, including the Canary
Islands. For the tropical Atlantic other than the area near the
tropical wave, light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate
from 07N to 20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser
Antilles. Gentle southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas in moderate
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin will move
to 22.8N 67.4W this afternoon, 23.3N 66.9W Sat morning, 24.1N
67.0W Sat afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 67.6W
Sun morning, 26.9N 68.3W Sun afternoon, and 28.6N 68.8W Mon
morning. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves N of
the area to 33.0N 68.3W early Tue. A stationary front extends
from 31N70W to 1010 mb low pres near 27.5N74.5W then continues as
a dissipating cold front to near West Palm Beach, Florida.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 8 ft will continue NW of
the front through early today. Winds may increase offshore Florida
by Tue night due to a low pres system possibly moving through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
Lewitsky
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