[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 221434
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023

Gert has finally succumbed to the very unfavorable environmental
conditions it has been embedded in for the last several days. First
light visible satellite imagery shows the low-level circulation has
become very diffuse, and is likely very close to opening up into a
trough. In fact, the surface observations in the Lesser Antilles to
the west of Gert have been rising this morning despite the
circulation moving closer to them. In addition, all of the deep
convective activity east of the center has largely dissipated.
Based on these available data, Gert no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory.

The initial motion is a slow west-northwest drift at about 4 kt. The
remnant low is forecast to turn northward and drift very slowly
until it completely dissipates in about 2-3 days. The guidance is
in good agreement with this scenario. Future information on Gert
can also be found in High Seas forecast issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 17.4N  59.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/0000Z 18.3N  60.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 19.0N  60.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 19.2N  59.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 18.9N  59.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky
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