[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 14.5N 70.2W at 22/0300
UTC or 240 nm S of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving
NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas
range from 14 to 16 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is near the center and up to 100 nm in a east semi-
circle. Franklin is expected to turn northward on Tue and
strengthen slightly through Wed morning. This will bring Franklin
at the southern coast of Hispaniola and near the northern coast
of Hispaniola on Wed night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details.

Tropical Depression Gert is centered near 17.1N 58.4W at 22/0300
UTC or 280 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving WNW
at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near
9 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near
and east of the center from 16N to 18N between 55W and 58W. Gert
is forecast to weaken to a remnant low Tue morning while moving
WNW. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gert
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details.

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 25.7N 93.3W at 22/0300
UTC or 225 nm ESE of Port Mansfield, Texas and moving WNW at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas range
from 12 to 15 ft near and north of the center. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 25N to 28N between 90W and 95W. The
current general motion is anticipated to continue through Tue,
and Nine should move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Nine is expected to become a
tropical storm before reaching the Texas coast. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 29W from 21N southward through a 1009 mb
low (AL92) at 16N28W about 210 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found from 14N to 20N between 28W and 31W.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 2 days and a high chance through
7 days.

The northern tip of a tropical wave is moving through the western Bay
of Campeche near 95W and generating isolated thunderstorms at the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the East Pacific
Tropical Weather Discussion at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just
north of Dakar, then extends west-southwestward through a 1009 mb
low (AL92) at 16N28W to 12N39W. An ITCZ continues from 12N39W to
09N54W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring
south of the trough from 05N to 12N between the Guinea-
Bissau/Sierra Leone coast and 26W. Scattered moderate convection
is present near the trough from 11N to 15N between 33W and 39W.
Widely scattered showers exist up to 50 nm along either side of
the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection at the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
north of Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on Tropical Depression
Nine at the northwestern Gulf.

Convergent easterly winds are causing isolated thunderstorms
across the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the
Gulf. Outside the center of Tropical Depression Nine, fresh to
strong NE to SE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft dominate the
northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are
evident at the west-central and southwestern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 26.3N 96.0W early Tue morning with maximum
sustained winds 40 kt with gusts 50 kt. It should move inland
near 27.3N 99.5W Tue evening while weakening to a tropical
depression, then become a remnant low well inland near 29N 103W by
early Wed. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong
gusty winds well in advance of this system. Conditions will
gradually improve in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Nine as high
pressure builds in over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on Tropical Storm
Franklin at the central basin.

Convergent easterly trades are generating widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from near the Cayman Islands eastward
across Jamaica, southern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin.
Outside the direct influence of Tropical Storm Franklin, moderate
to fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 8 to 13 ft exist at the
central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to ESE
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are noted for
the eastern basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5
to 8 ft are found near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage.
Gentle monsoonal winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are evident north of
Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near
16N71W Tue evening with max winds 55 kt, and move N across
Hispaniola late Wed and Wed evening. Fresh to strong trade winds
will pulse off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage tonight and
again Tue night. Rough to very rough seas can be expected through
early Wed in the eastern and central basin. Conditions in the
Caribbean will improve Wed night into early Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning on
Tropical Depression Nine, and the Tropical Waves section for
Invest AL92 in the Atlantic Basin.

Enhanced by an upper-level low near 27N71W, scattered moderate
convection is found near a surface trough north of 25N between 59W
and 75W. Convergent fresh to strong easterly winds north and
northeast of the remnant low of Emily near 22N44W are producing
scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 30W and 45W.
Seas in the area range from 7 to 10 ft. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ for additional weather in the Atlantic basin.

Outside the impact areas of Tropical Depression Nine, and north
and northeast of remnant low of Emily, light to gentle with
locally moderate NE to SE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft dominate
north of 20N between the northeast Africa coast and 65W, including
near the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 4 to 6
ft seas exist north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. From 08N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell
are found. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are present from 10N to 20N between the central
Africa coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to
7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin currently in the
central Caribbean Sea will cross Hispaniola Wed evening near
20N70W, be near 23N68W Thu evening with 55 kt winds. It will move
to 24N66W Fri evening, then strengthen to a hurricane Sat evening
near 26N66W. Tropical Depression Gert will become a remnant low
Tue morning near 17.5N 59.5W before dissipating by Tue evening.
Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse off Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage tonight and again Tue night.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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