[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 220237
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Gert appears to be on its last legs tonight.  While some convection
remains near the small cyclone, the surface circulation is becoming
less well defined, and the system could be opening up into a
trough.  I don't have enough confidence to issue the last advisory
based on the satellite data alone, so for continuity Gert will
remain a 25-kt tropical depression.

Strong shear should weaken the system while it moves west-
northwestward, and Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of low
pressure on Tuesday.  No signficant changes were made to the NHC
track or intensity forecasts, which was also consistent with the
latest consensus aids and global model predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.1N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 17.5N  59.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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