[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these special features.

...in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (AL98):

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association
with a tropical wave, and a 1006 mb broad area of low pressure
center, that is near 16N35W. This position is several hundred
miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The environmental
conditions appear to be generally favorable for more development
of this system. It is likely for a short-lived tropical
depression to form this weekend. It will move west-northwestward
or northwestward 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean. The upper level winds that will be over the system are
forecast to increase by early next week. More development is
not expected. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is high.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL STORM EMILY...

The center of Tropical Storm Emily, at 20/1500 UTC, is near
19.5N 38.8W. Emily is moving WNW, or about 300 degrees,
09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to
55 knots. Tropical storm force winds are within 160 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 100 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea
heights of 12 feet or greater are within 180 nm of the center
in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 250 nm of the center in
the N quadrant.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...

The center of TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX, at 20/1500 UTC,
is near 16.8N 53.7W. T.D. SIX is moving westward, or
280 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The sea heights
range from 7 feet to 11 feet within 300 nm of the center
in the N semicircle. The sea heights range from 5 feet
to 8 feet within 400 nm of the center in the S semicircle.
Expect the wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 30 knots
from 16N to 19N between 52W and 54W. Precipitation:
numerous strong is from 15N to 18N between 51W and 55W.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...INVEST AL90 IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 14N65W, along a
tropical wave. Precipitation: numerous strong is from
12N to 15N between 65W and 67W. Scattered moderate to
strong is from 11N to 18N between 54W and 64W. The
sea heights are reaching 10 feet in most of the eastern
one-third of the Caribbean Sea, except for 4 feet in
the coastal waters of Venezuela. The sea heights are
ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the central Caribbean
Sea, between 70W and Jamaica. The precipitation pattern
continues to show signs of organization. More development
of this weather system is expected. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form during the next couple of days.
The movement will be westward to west-northwestward
10 to 15 mph in the eastern and the central Caribbean Sea.
The weather system is forecast to turn northward, and
move into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek.
Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of the Lesser Antilles
during the next couple of days. Anyone who has interests
in the eastern and the central Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance
mission is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours is high.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...INVEST 91L IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A far eastern Gulf of Mexico area of disturbed weather is
expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low
pressure early this week. It is possible that some slow
development of this weather system may occur. The weather
system is forecast to move westward 15 to 20 mph. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form, as it
the weather system approaches the western Gulf of Mexico
coastline by Tuesday. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 07N to 19N between Africa and 31W.
The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
gradual development of this weather system. It is possible
that a tropical depression may form later this week.
The weather system is forecast to move west-northwestward
through the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Please, refer to the following website,
www.hurricanes.gov, for more information.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W,
from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 15N northward from 80W
westward, especially along the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula and Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SW coastal areas
of Senegal, 12N23W, and 17N35W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the INVEST 91L, and the GULF OF MEXICO developing
low pressure center.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough extends from
the Florida Big Bend toward the Yucatan Channel.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is in the eastern half of the area. Fresh cyclonic
wind flow is to the east of the surface trough, and
within 75 nm of the tropical wave to the west. Moderate
NE winds are elsewhere from 90W eastward. Gentle to
moderate winds cover the western half of the area.
The sea heights are: reaching 3 feet off the NW coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the SE Gulf/Straits
of Florida; and they are ranging from 1 foot to 2 feet
elsewhere.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
to locally strong precipitation, are in the western half
of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge over the Gulf waters will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of
the basin today. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the
eastern Gulf due to a trough extending across the region.
Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather located in
the far eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to lead to the
formation of a broad area of low pressure early this week.
Some slow development of this system could occur
thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph,
and a tropical depression could form as it approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. This
system has a low chance of development in 48 hours
and a medium chance in 7 days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the INVEST AL90. Please, refer to the TROPICAL WAVES
section, for details about the 86W/87W tropical wave.

Some sea height information is in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section, regarding the AL90 INVEST. The sea heights are
reaching 4 feet in the SW corner of the area, and they
are ranging from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Strong NE winds
are within 240 nm off the coast of Colombia between 74W and
78W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere in the central one-third
of the area. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the rest
of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, southwestward beyond
eastern Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 16N
southward from 74W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 20/1200 UTC,
are: 1.76 in Guadeloupe; 0.89 in Freeport in the Bahamas,
0.66 in Trinidad; 0.60 in Curacao; and 0.13 in Montego Bay
in Jamaica.

A tropical wave/low pressure is over the eastern Caribbean.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of
organization in association with this area of low pressure.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days as it moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt over the eastern
and central Caribbean, before turning northward and moving
into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should
monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane
Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the
system later today. This system has a high chance of
evelopment in 48 hours. Regardless of development,
strong winds and moderate to rough seas can be
expected through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about TROPICAL STORM EMILY and TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between
50W and 66W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 25N northward between 48W and 65W.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that broad
cyclonic wind flow is to the east of the Gulf of Mexico
surface trough, reaching 74W in the Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is to the northwest of the line that runs from 30N70W to the
Straits of Florida.

The subtropical ridge covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh winds are elsewhere to the south of the line 28N32W
24N48W 23N60W 27N73W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the area.

Tropical Depression Six is near 16.8N 53.7W at 11 AM EDT,
and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1008 mb. Six will move to 16.9N 55.1W this evening,
become a remnant low and move to 17.2N 57.0W Mon morning,
and dissipate Mon evening. Fresh to strong tradewinds will
pulse off Hispaniola and the Windward Passage each evening
through Tue night. Fresh tradewinds south of 25N will
persist through Tue.

$$
MT
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