[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 200247
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023

The latest CIMSS proxy-vis satellite imagery shows that the
low-level center of Tropical Depression Six has become completely
exposed, with all the convection displace to the east. Infrared
imagery also shows that the cold cloud tops from earlier this
afternoon have warmed over the last few hours. A blend of
subjective and objective satellite estimates remain around 30 kt.
Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently in a hostile environment with strong
deep-layer vertical shear, and dry mid-level relative humidities.
These conditions are expected to persist, with the depression
expected to be fairly short-lived. Simulated satellite imagery shows
the potential for a few more convective bursts over the next day or
so. The official forecast calls for no further strengthening, and
for the system to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours and
dissipate by 48 hours. However, some models suggest that it may
become devoid of convection a little earlier than currently
forecast. The intensity forecast remains near the model consensus.

The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, to the south of a
low-level ridge. The system is expected to continue westward, with a
slight decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. By Monday,
the system will round the edge of the ridge with a gradual turn to
the west-northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous
NHC forecast and lies near the corrected model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 17.2N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 17.5N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 17.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
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