[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or
northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By
early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to
increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An elongated trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for further development of this system,
but a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located just north of Hispaniola is
forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure could form. Some slow development of this
system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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