[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171332 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A 1009 mb low pressure is located near 14N27W is associated with
an eastern Atlantic tropical wave, moving W at around 10 kt. This
broad low is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend before environmental conditions become
unfavorable for development early next week. The system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone development within 48 hours.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A 1009 mb low pressure is located near 11N37W, or about 800 nm
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N and between
35W and 39W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while it moves west- northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development in 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both special features.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
tropical wave along 27W that has induced low pressure formation
and that has a potential for tropical development.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 40W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 66W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the northern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N22W to 11N40W to 13N53W. See
Special Features and Tropical Waves section for details on
convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, with a weak
pressure gradient prevailing. The weak pressure gradient is
supporting mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a surface ridge over the Gulf waters will
support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the
basin through the weekend. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure could form in the central or W Gulf by the beginning of
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the
central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the north central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong tradewinds will prevail
across the central Caribbean through early today before slightly
diminishing over the area for the next few days. Gentle to
moderate tradewinds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical and
subtropical Atlantic waters N of 20N. Fresh to locally strong
winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are noted from 17N to 23N between 40W
and 65W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong tradewinds
will pulse off Hispaniola each evening through the next several
days. Fresh tradewinds will develop south of 25N today then
diminish on Sat. A cold front will approach the NW waters then
stall. Fresh SW winds ahead of the cold front can be expected
today and Fri in the NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK
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