[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is over west Africa near 16W from 07N
to 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection is occurring from 07N to 13N between 20W and 26W
and E of the wave axis inland west Africa. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 17N between 17W and 20W. The tropical
wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this
morning. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week and into the weekend while it moves generally west-
northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more unfavorable
for development by early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 36W,
from 07N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 16N between 30W and 43W. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for some gradual development of
this system during the next several days as it moves to the west-
northwestward or northwestward between 10-15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic through the weekend.

The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Caribbean near 62W, from
10N to 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered to isolated showers
are occurring across the Windward Islands and adjacent waters.

The axis of a tropical wave is moving across Central America near
85W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward into the east Pacific,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring in the Gulf
of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Dakar near 14N17W to
12N22W to 11N37W to 12N48W. See the Tropical Waves section above
for a description of showers and thunderstorms.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the basin providing light to
gentle variable winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft, except in the Bay of
Campeche where a surface trough is supporting moderate NE to E
winds and 3 to 4 ft seas. Aside from slightly higher winds, the
trough is generating scattered showers in the SW gulf. Similar
convective activity is occurring across the north-central and NE
coastal waters ahead of a stationary front N of the area. The tail
of a surface trough that extends along most of the Florida
Peninsula is supporting scattered heavy showers across the Florida
Keys and the Florida Straits. Recent scatterometer data show
locally fresh SE winds behind the trough in the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night through late week, supporting fresh winds off northwest
Yucatan. Elsewhere, a ridge over the Gulf will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for a description of showers
and thunderstorms occurring across the basin.

The tail of a surface trough that extends from the Florida
Peninsula is generating heavy showers across the western and
central Cuba offshore waters and in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
to isolated showers are occurring in the SW Caribbean associated
with the E Pacific monsoon trough. Subtropical high pressure N of
the area is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across the
eastern, central and southwest Caribbean along with seas of 5 to 7
ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds are in the NW basin.

For the forecast, ridging over the western Atlantic will support
fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central
Caribbean into today. Moderate winds and seas will prevail
elsewhere through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is moving westward over the eastern Straits of
Florida, from 27N7.5W to 24N81W. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted from 22N to 269, and west of 72W through the Straits of
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is also noted offshore NE
Florida, north of 28N and W of 80W.

An upper-level low centered near 26N68W is only able to induce
isolated showers and tstorms from 22N to 29N between 65W and 70W
as a large plume of dry Saharan dust has recently caught up with
the upper-low.

Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by
a 1024 mb high pressure center near 34N41W. A surface ridge axis
extends WSW from that high to the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
NE to E trade winds from 15N to 26N between 35W and 60W, where
seas are 6 to 8 ft. Earlier ASCAT data depicted moderate to fresh
ESE trades north of Hispaniola through the SE Bahamas and in the
Windward Passage, where seas are likely 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to
moderate wind speeds are farther north, closer to the ridge axis.
Over the far NE Atlantic, from the Canary Islands to the coast of
Western Sahara, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft
prevail. Of note, a dry airmass due to Saharan dust covers much of
the basin from 13N to 27N, and east of 70W.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse off
Hispaniola this evening. Fresh E winds will form S of 25N starting
Thu. A cold front will approach the NW waters then stall, but
fresh SW winds can be expected Thu and Thu night in the NW waters.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
Ramos
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