[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130847
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 30W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 31W and 35W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 60W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 58W and 62W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 85W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the NW
Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W to 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 11N57W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 16N between 17W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the NE Gulf. Light
winds, and seas of 1-2 ft, are found in the vicinity of the high.
Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted W of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are
noted elsewhere W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan.
Elsewhere, a ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over the south central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over
the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist
across the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are
expected over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds and seas will
increase in areal coverage over the south- central Caribbean into
mid week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N59W to 23N67W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the trough. Fresh to strong
winds are noted N of 20N and E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range E of 50W, and 4-6 ft
W of 50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge will lift
northward ahead of a surface trough moving westward toward the
Bahamas through early next week. Expect moderate to fresh easterly
winds south of 24N following the trough through Tue. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late afternoons
and early evenings through Tue.

$$
AL
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