[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis near 30W
from west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, moving west
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 10N between
29W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from
20N southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted near the Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis near 83W
from 20N southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 250 nm on either
side of the wave axis affecting western Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua,
and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N37W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 08N47W. Besides the convection
related to the tropical wave mentioned in the above section,
scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to
18N and E of 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extending across the Straits of Florida is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE Gulf
waters including the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula.
Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1017 mb
centered near 27N89W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft
are present over the eastern and north-central Gulf, including
the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, a surface trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan.
Elsewhere, the ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through
mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low in the eastern basin near 16N69W is producing
scattered showers across the eastern half of the basin. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for additional weather in the
Caribbean Basin. The Atlantic Ridge to the north near 29N
continues to sustain a trade-wind regime across much of the
basin, except near Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh to strong ENE to E
winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft exist across the central basin.
Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at
the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Light to
gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft in moderate easterly
swell are present near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the south-central
Caribbean will persist across much of the central and southwest
Caribbean through tonight as high pressure builds north of the
area. Except for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras
Sun night, these winds and seas will diminish slightly Sun week
over most of the basin as a trough moving into the Bahamas weakens
the high pressure. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase
again over the south-central Caribbean into mid week as high
pressure builds again over the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
at the Great Bahama Bank, and the central and northwest Bahamas.
An upper-level trough runs northward from near the Windward
Passage to south of Bermuda. Interaction with convergent southerly
winds is causing scattered moderate convection north of 27N
between 67W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the east, another
surface trough extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N44W to northeast of Puerto Rico near 22N64W.
This feature is generating scattered moderate convection from 21N
to 28N between 60W and 68W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high near
34N45W across 28N68W to near central Bahamas. This ridge is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
northerly swell north of 27N between 45W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. For the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NNE to NE trades
and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 21N between the Africa
coast and 45W, including the Canary Islands. For the tropical
Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are
evident from 10N to 20N between 32W and the Lesser Antilles. Near
the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle monsoonal winds with seas
at 4 to 6 ft are noted from 10N to 21N between the central Africa
coast and 32W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge extends will
lift northward today ahead of a surface trough moving westward
toward the Bahamas through early next week. Expect moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough Sun to Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse off Hispaniola during the late
afternoons and early evenings through Tue.

$$
ERA
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