[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 21W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 16N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 43W and 46W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from western Haiti
southward into northern Colombia. It is moving westward at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal
border, then extends southwestward through 10N25W to 09N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from
07N to 13N between the southern Senegal/Guinea coast and 21W.
Similar convection is also present near the trough from 05N to 09N
between 28W and 38W. An ITCZ runs westward from 08N47W to 08N57W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is present up to 60 nm north
and 110 nm south of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters adjacent to
Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Florida, including
the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends
southwestward from a developing high at the northeastern Gulf to
near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 2 ft at the east-central and southeastern Gulf,
including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge and developing high will
support gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf for the
next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the
western Gulf with slight to moderate seas. A trough will move off
the Yucatan Peninsula each night and produce fresh to strong winds
off northwest Yucatan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above
for convection in the Caribbean Basin. The Bermuda High near
28N60W continues to channel easterly trade winds across the entire
basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident
at the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 1 to 3 ft seas exist across
the western basin, including the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the south-central
basin will expand across much of the central and southwest
basin through late Sat as Bermuda High builds north of the area.
Except for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras Sun
night, these winds and seas will diminish slightly into early next
week over most of the basin as a trough moving into the Bahamas
weakens the Bermuda High. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
increase again over the south-central Caribbean as the Bermuda
High strengthens once more.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low to upper-level trough is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 68W and the Bahamas. A
dissipating stationary front reaches southwestward from a 1020 mb
now near 32N41W to 24N55W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near the western end of this front from 21N to 26W
between 52W and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft are found north of 20N between 65W and 75W. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell
are present north of 20N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades with
7 to 10 ft seas are noted north of 19N between the Africa coast
and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to ENE
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen from 11N to 20N between the
Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal
westerly winds along with 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large
southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge related to the
Bermuda High will lift northward through Sat ahead of a surface
trough moving westward toward the Bahamas through early next week.
Expect moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following
the trough Sun to Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off
Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings through
Tue.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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