[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Aug 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning E of 35W: A gale-force wind warning for
the marine zone CANARIAS was issued by the METEO-FRANCE, to end
at 11/0600 UTC. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 37N18W.
The gale-force winds developed in the CANARIAS marine zone,
in response to the surface pressure gradient that has been
between the 1029 mb high pressure center, and comparatively
lower surface pressures that have been in NW Africa. Strong to
near gale-force NE winds are elsewhere from 22N northward from
25W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to
10 feet from 20N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 17N to 26N between 20W and
30W. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, at the
website https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 17N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 06N to the
monsoon trough, between the 26W/27W tropical wave and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 17N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 04N to the monsoon trough between 40W
and 43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 20N southward,
moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N in the Caribbean
Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between 65W and 77W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 16N to parts of Cuba between Jamaica and
the NW Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 09N24W, to 08N47W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 12N southward from
60W eastward. The rest of the nearby precipitation also is related
to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, beyond Lake
Okeechobee in south Florida, toward the lower Texas Gulf coast.

The sea heights are reaching 4 feet from the coastal waters of the
lower Texas Gulf coast to the coastal waters of NE Mexico. The sea
heights are reaching 3 feet in the coastal waters of Louisiana, to
the west central Gulf, and in the coastal waters of Mexico along
20N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are
reaching 2 feet in the coastal waters that are between the Florida
Big Bend and Louisiana, in the Straits of Florida, and off the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights are reaching
1 foot elsewhere. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Gulf of Mexico.

Surface ridging across the Gulf will support gentle to moderate
winds over most of the basin during the next several days.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the western Gulf with
slight to moderate seas. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night and produce fresh to strong winds off
NW Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are from 12N to 16N between 66W and 71W.
Moderate to fresh easterly wind flow is in the rest of the central
one-third of the area. Moderate easterly wind flow is in the
eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower NE winds are in
the western one-third of the area. The sea heights are reaching
5 feet to the south of Puerto Rico. The sea heights are reaching
4 feet in the eastern half of the Venezuela coastal waters; from
the Hispaniola coastal waters and offshore waters to the coastal
waters and the offshore waters of Colombia and the eastern half of
Panama. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the western half of
the Venezuela coastal waters. The sea heights are reaching mostly
2 feet elsewhere, except for 1 foot for the eastern coastal waters
of Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between northern Colombia
along 75W, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is within
150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 75W and 80W.

Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean through Fri, locally strong in the south central
portion. Light to gentle winds can be expected for the western
basin. On Fri night through Tue night, fresh to strong winds and
moderate seas will expand across the central Caribbean, while
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N38W, to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N41W. The stationary front
continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 26N45W,
to 25N50W and 26N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 23N to 27N between 48W and 54W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N61W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond Lake Okeechobee in south
Florida. A surface ridge passes through 31N26W, to 24N40W and
20N56W.

Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 15N to 22N from the
Cabo Verde Islands eastward. Mostly moderate to locally fresh NE
winds are from 700 nm to 1000 nm to the south of the line that
runs from 28N30W to 23N45W 22N56W 25N70W. Fresh southerly winds
are from the monsoon trough southward from 35W eastward. Moderate
or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. The sea
heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet to the south and east
of the line that runs from the border of Senegal and Mauritania,
to southern parts of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 12N30W, to the
Equator along 34W. The comparatively highest concentration of the
sea heights that are ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet is from 10W
eastward. The sea heights generally are ranging from 3 feet to
6 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward. The sea heights are 4 feet or
lower from 60W westward.

The subtropical ridge axis will be situated near 28N
through the weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds N of
25N. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong north of Hispaniola
during the evenings Sat through Tue.

$$
mt/al
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