[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NE Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the
1024 mb subtropical ridge located north of the Madeira Islands and
lower pressures in NW Africa support strong to gale-force
northerly winds off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara,
including the Canary Islands. Meteo-France has a gale warning in
effect until 11/1200 UTC for the Canarias region with the
strongest winds occurring in the water passages between the Canary
Islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 24W, south of
17N, and is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 06N to 11N and east of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 38W, south of
17N, and is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 05N to 09N and between 34W and 44W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is located near 67W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted between Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola from 18N to 20N
and between 65W and 69W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is located near 78W, south of
21N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in
association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues
westward to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 10N61W. Please
refer to the TROPICAL WAVE section above for convection in the
area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends
westward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. In addition, a dry airmass in the area is
suppressing convection development of convection. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and
Mexico support moderate southeast to south winds west of 89W.
Seas in these waters are 3 to 5 ft. Locally moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the Gulf will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse through the
weekend over the western Gulf with slight to moderate seas. A
thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night and
produce fresh to strong winds off NW Yucatan through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection already described in the TROPICAL WAVE section,
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted in the
of NW Colombia and Panama. A dry airmass is found in the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the development of convection.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft are present in the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the
central and eastern Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the
area today through Fri, locally strong in the south-central
portion. Light to gentle winds can be expected for the western
basin. On Fri night through Mon night, fresh to strong winds and
moderate seas will expand across the central Caribbean, while
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the
GALE WARNING in the NE Atlantic and the TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ sections for convection in the tropical Atlantic.

Divergence aloft north of Hispaniola is sustaining a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 27N and between
66W and 74W. Farther east, scattered moderate convection is
depicted north of 25N and between 45W and 55W in association to a
stationary frontal boundary. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. In addition, dry air associated with
the Saharan Air Layer is depicted north of 10N and east of 64W.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident south of 25N
and east of 35W, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated near 28N through the weekend. The northern
portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the
southeastern waters today and Fri. This will increase winds fresh
to locally strong with moderate seas across the region, including
the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds will resume on Sat. Winds
will pulse fresh to locally strong north of Hispaniola during the
evenings Sat through Mon.

$$
KRV
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