[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NE Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the
1024 mb subtropical ridge located north of the Madeira Islands and
lower pressures in NW Africa support strong to gale-force
northerly winds off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara,
including the Canary Islands. Meteo-France has a gale warning in
effect until 11/1200 UTC for the Canarias region with the
strongest winds occurring in the water passages between the Canary
Islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south
of 17N, and is moving slowly westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N and east of 27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W/37W,
south of 17N, and is moving slowly westward at 5 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N and between 28W and
44W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W, south
of 20N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 16N to 18N and between 65W and 67W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W, south
of 21N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W and continues westward to 09N45W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N45W to 08N50W to 11N61W. Convection is described
in the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends
westward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures over Texas and Mexico support moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds west of 87W. Seas in these waters are 3-5
ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off
southern Texas and NE Tamaulipas. Locally moderate or weaker winds
and slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. Isolated
thunderstorms are moving off the SW Florida coast, otherwise no
significant convection is noted.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the Gulf will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin during the next
several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse through the
weekend over the western Gulf with slight to moderate seas. A
thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night,
producing moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves
section, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the
nearshore waters of southern Cuba and NW Colombia. A dry airmass
is found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the
development of convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the
central and eastern Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the
area today through Fri. Light to gentle winds can be expected for
the western basin. On Fri night through Mon night, fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas will pulse across the south central
Caribbean in the evening hours, while moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on the GALE
WARNING in the NE Atlantic.

A surface trough located north of Hispaniola and divergence aloft
sustain a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially south of 28N and between 66W and 73W. Farther east,
scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N and between
41W and 53W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident south of 25N
and west of 55W, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated near 28N through the weekend. The northern
portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the
southeastern waters today and Fri. This will increase winds fresh
to locally strong with moderate seas across the region, including
the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds will resume on Sat. Winds
will pulse fresh to locally strong north of Hispaniola during the
evenings Sat through Mon.

$$
Lewitsky
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