[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 25W/26W,
from 17N southward near the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W around 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted well
ahead of the tropical wave from 08N to 15N between 30W and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 44W, from
17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters along
57W/58W, from 21N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N
between 58W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 73W/74W,
from 20N near the Windward Passage southward to across SW Haiti
and northern Colombia, moving W around 15 kt. No significant
convection over water is noted near the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 85W/86W from 05N to across the Gulf of
Papagayo and western Nicaragua, and into the NW Caribbean Sea,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the
NW Caribbean near the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 15N17W to 11N37W. The ITCZ extends from 11N37W to
11N43W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 09N45W to 15N57W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to
12N between 47W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is noted in the eastern Gulf near 26N87W. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-2 ft seas are noted across the
eastern half of the Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft
seas across the western half of the Gulf. Mainly fair weather is
present with some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in
the N-central and NE Gulf.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the area
will support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin
during the next several days. Moderate return flow across the far
western Gulf will become moderate to fresh by early Wed. A thermal
trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing
moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula
through most of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on three
tropical waves potentially impacting the basin.

Moderate to fresh trades are evident in the central Caribbean,
with moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to
locally moderate trades in the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft
in the central Caribbean, locally to 9 ft offshore northern
Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with fresh trade winds
over the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades
are expected over the eastern basin, with gentle to moderate
trades are expected in the western basin. Winds across the
Caribbean will diminish slightly Tue night into early Wed, with
gentle to moderate winds expected for the rest of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1024 mb high pressure centered near 29N51W extends a ridge
westward to central Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is under the influence of the ridge, locally
fresh from 19N to 22N. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft in long period SE
swell N of 27N. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed easterly swell from
15N-27N and W of 50W, enhanced by the locally fresh trades, and
4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge axis will
continue to be situated along 28N through much of the week. Fresh
E trade winds S of 25N and E of 75W will diminish to mostly
moderate speeds Wed. Seas generated by these winds will gradually
subside through Wed. Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will
pulse to locally strong speeds this evening. Starting Tue, these
winds will be mostly at gentle to moderate speeds through early
Thu, then increase slightly to fresh speeds through Sat night as
the northern portion of a tropical wave moves across the
southeastern forecast waters late in the week, and through the
Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is a possibility that the fresh
winds may increase to strong speeds at that time with the passage
of the tropical wave.

$$
Lewitsky
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