[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant
convection is seen near this feature based on the latest analysis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen from 05N to 08N between 33W and 40W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados and the Lesser
Antilles from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Leeward Islands
northward to 23N between 60W and 65W. This wave will increase the
chance of showers and thunderstorms near the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next couple of days.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Haiti southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found near Haiti and the Windward
Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar and runs southwestward to 09N30W, then turns northwestward
to 12N53W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up south of the trough from 07N to 14N between the
Gambia-Guinea coast and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is
found up to 90 nm north, and 180 nm south of the trough between
28W and 34W. West of 45W, isolated thunderstorms are present near
and up to 110 nm north of the trough. No ITCZ is present based on
the latest analysis.

Convergent northerly winds north of the East Pacific monsoon
trough are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the Caribbean waters adjacent to Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1017 mb high at the
north-central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. These features are
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across the
eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
dominate the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to S
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high and associated ridge will support
gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf. Moderate southerly
flow across the far western Gulf will continue through early next
week. A thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each
night, producing moderate to fresh winds northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Jamaica and southern Cuba, and nearby waters.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above
for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.

Tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge to the north near 26N
and lower pressure over northern Colombia are causing fresh to
strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft at the south-central
basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh easterly winds and 5
to 7 ft seas are evident at the north-central basin. Gentle to
moderate E winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist across the
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted just north
of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail over the central
basin through Mon night, while fresh to strong winds are expected
at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh trades will persist
over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate trades are anticipated
in the western basin. Winds across the entire basin should
diminish slightly by the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds are producing isolated thunderstorms
from the northwest and central Bahamas northward to beyond 31N.
A mid-level trough near 13N51W is generating widely scattered
moderate convection from 16N to 22N between 44W and 54W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted
north of 24N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the
central Atlantic north of 26N, a 1027 mb high is providing light
to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in moderate easterly swell
between 25W and 60W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate with
locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of
19N between the Africa coast and 25W. Across the tropical
Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft seas are
seen from 12N to 24N/26N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and light to gentle monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending southwestward
from the 1027 mb high will dominate the Atlantic waters west of
55W into early next week. South of 25N and east of 75W, expect
fresh ESE trade winds with increasing trade-wind swell to continue
through early Mon. Moderate to fresh winds off the northern coast
of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong during the afternoons
and evenings through Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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