[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with
axis extending along 22W from 07N-20N, moving W at 10 to 15
kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the axis
mainly S of 10N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 06N to 20N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 58W
from 07N-20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave at this time.

An east-central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 20N
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N47W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N47W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 250 nm S of the monsoon trough between
25W-36W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1017 mb high pressure centered near 25N89W. Deep-layered ridging
is also present across the northern and central Gulf. As a result,
no precipitation is occurring across most of the basin, except E
of 86W where scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted. Light
to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail over the eastern
Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SSE winds and 2
to 4 ft seas prevail across the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will support gentle to
moderate winds over most of the basin. Moderate return flow across
the far western Gulf will continue through early next week. A
thermal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, and
will produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the east-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are occurring in
the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Elsewhere in the
eastern and central Caribbean, fresh trades with seas 3-6 ft
prevail. In the northwest Caribbean, gentle trades and 1-3 ft seas
prevail, except in the Gulf of Honduras, where winds are moderate
to locally fresh with 3 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central
and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are expected in
the western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms prevail across the W Atlantic W of
70W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W. Fresh
trade winds prevail from Africa to 75W. Moderate variable winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas from 7 to 9 ft seas are noted from 15N to
25N between 40 and 60W. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the W
Atlantic, and 4 to 7 ft are noted over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the
basin into early next week. Expect ESE trade winds to increase to
fresh speeds the remainder of this weekend S of 25N and E of 75W.
Winds off the N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to strong speeds
during the afternoons and evenings through Mon.

$$
ERA
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