[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 37W, from 20N southward,
moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 07N to 10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave
from 15N to 22N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from
20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots.
The wave is moving through parts of Central America
and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm
to the west of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 96W in Mexico, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. The wave is
moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico and the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 25N southward from 90W westward, in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N20W, 12N30W, 11N40W, and 09N53W.
Precipitation: widelyscattered moderate to isolated strong
is in clusters within 480 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate is within
270 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between the
37W tropical wave and the 54W/55W tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about the 96W tropical wave, and the precipitation.

A broad surface ridge extends from 30N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, through the NW Bahamas and south Florida, to a
Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb 27N88W high pressure center. The
ridge continues to the upper Texas Gulf coast/SW Louisiana.

The sea heights are reaching 1 foot from the coastal
waters of Louisiana, toward the Yucatan Peninsula and
everywhere else from 90W eastward. The sea heights are
reaching 3 feet: in the Texas coastal waters and off the
NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights are 2 feet elsewhere.
Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the area.

Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will
continue through early next week. A thermal trough will
move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, and will
produce moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about the 70W tropical wave.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet
from 14N southward between the Peninsula de la Guajira
of Colombia and 81W. The 9 foot seas are in the coastal
waters of Colombia between 75W and 76W. The sea heights
are reaching 3 feet in the Venezuela coastal waters. The
sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet from 14N to
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica from 80W eastward.
The sea heights are reaching: 3 feet off the coast of
SE Nicaragua, and in the coastal waters of Honduras;
and elsewhere from 1 foot to 2 feet from 15N northward
from 80W westward. Near gale-force NE winds are from
11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Strong NE winds are
elsewhere from 16N southward between 72W and 78W. Fresh
NE to E winds are in the remainder of the area that is
between the 70W tropical wave and 82W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower
winds are in the rest of the area.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough,
covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of
the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough extends from the Peninsula de la Guajira
of Colombia beyond the southern sections of Panama, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 16N southward
from 78W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 05/1200 UTC,
are: 0.53 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.36 in
Nassau in the Bahamas.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in
the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
trades are expected in the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N60W
to the SE Bahamas. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb
shows that a trough is moving through the SE U.S.A. The
trough is about 750 nm to the NW of the 31N60W-to-SE Bahamas
line.

A 1022 mb low pressure center is near 33N34W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate,
are from 28N northward between 25W and 40W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward
between 40W and 67W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near
33N43W.

The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from
14N to 25N between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet, with some isolated 7 foot heights, elsewhere
from 60W eastward. The sea heights are 4 feet or less from
60W westward. Strong easterly winds are from 17N to 21N
between 49W and the 54W/55W tropical wave. Fresh easterly
winds are from 14N to 26N from 70W eastward. Mostly moderate
anticyclonic wind flow is from 70W westward. Moderate or
slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Ridging will dominate the basin this weekend into early
next week. Expect ESE trade winds to increase to fresh
speeds this weekend S of 25N and E of 75W. Winds off the
N coast of Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong
speeds during the afternoons and evenings through Mon.

$$
mt
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