[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 32W and 40W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 13N between 40W and 54W, and
from 15N to 21N between 52W and 55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from just north of
Puerto Rico southward into northern Venezuela. It is moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near the eastern
Dominican Republic and Mona Passage, and just west of the Windward
Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
just south of Nouakchott, then extends west-southwestward through
13N35W to 09N53W. Other than the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section above, widely scattered moderate convection
is occurring south of the trough from 07N to 13N between the
Gambia-Guinea coast and 27W. No ITCZ is present based on the
latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters adjacent to
eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern tip of an East Pacific tropical wave is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. A
surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1014 mb high over
northern Mississippi to another 1014 mb high at the west-central
Gulf. These features are providing light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 2 ft for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SSE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail across the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the modest high and related surface ridge will
support gentle to moderate winds over most of the Gulf. Moderate
southeasterly flow across the far western Gulf will continue
through early next week. A thermal trough will move off the
Yucatan Peninsula each night, producing moderate to fresh winds
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly trades are causing isolated thunderstorms
across southern Cuba, Haiti and nearby waters, and at the western
Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean
Basin. Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near 24N
and the Colombian Low over northwestern Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft at the south-
central basin. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are
found at the northwestern basin, and near Costa Rica and Panama.
Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
elsewhere in the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail in the
south-central basin, while moderate to fresh trades are expected
elsewhere in the central and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh
winds are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through this
evening, while gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere in the
western basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough runs northeastward from east of the
northwest Bahamas at 28N73W to just south of Bermuda. Widely
scattered moderate convection exists near and up to 180 nm
southeast of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores
High across 31N46W to near the central Bahamas. This ridge is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
easterly swell north of 27N between 25W and 70W. North of 27N
between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present.
Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E
trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident from 12N to 27N between
the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles/Bahamas. Near the
Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NNE
trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted north of 20N between the
northwest Africa coast and 25W. Light to gentle southerly and
monsoonal westerly winds with 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly
swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds will continue off northeastern Florida through early Sat
morning. The Atlantic Ridge will dominate the basin through early
next week. ESE trade winds will increase to fresh this weekend
south of 25N and east of 75W. Winds off the northern coast of
Hispaniola will pulse to locally strong during the afternoons and
evenings Sat through Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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