[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 03 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The latest forecast from the METEO-FRANCE shows
that gale-force winds are in the AGADIR marine zone,
from 03/1200 UTC until 04/0000 UTC. The surface pressure
gradient, that is between the Azores high pressure center
and the comparatively lower NW Africa surface pressures,
will lead to the gale-force northerly winds. It is likely
that the sea heights may range from 10 feet to 11 feet
in the gale-force wind area. Please, read the latest
High Seas Forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at
the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/
affiche/2, for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean is along 23W/24W, from 19N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 09N to 12N between
28W and 31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 08N to 13N between the tropical
wave and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from
21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 07N to 13N between 35W and 45W. This
precipitation also is near the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W,
from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave from 04N to 14N. Isolated moderate is
within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from
14N to 20N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from
20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots.
The wave is moving through parts of Central America
and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from
82W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Most of
the precipitation is from the tropical wave westward.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from Lake Maracaibo
in NW Venezuela westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 18N southward, from
80W westward. A north-to-south oriented line of
precipitation is moving toward the coast of Central
America, from Panama to Honduras.

A tropical wave is along 99W in Mexico, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 90W westward,
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 15N17W, to 12N30W, and 10N46W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N46W, to 09N53W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from
16N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about the 99W tropical wave, and the precipitation.

A broad surface ridge extends from 30N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, through SE Louisiana, to the lower Texas Gulf coast.

The sea heights are reaching 1 foot from the coastal
waters of Louisiana, toward the Yucatan Peninsula and
everywhere else from 90W eastward. The sea heights are
2 feet from the coastal waters of the middle Texas Gulf
coast to the west central Gulf. The sea heights are
3 feet elsewhere in the SW corner of the area.
A weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle
breezes in the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf. Moderate
SE to S winds are in the SW and in the west central Gulf.

Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will
support gentle to moderate winds over most of the basin.
Moderate return flow across the far western Gulf will
continue through the upcoming weekend. A thermal trough
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula and will produce
nightly moderate to fresh winds to the northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for information
about the 85W/86W tropical wave.

Fresh ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from
5 feet to 6 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea.
Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from
2 feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, is in the Venezuela coastal waters, and from
17N to 21N between 60W and 67W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC,
are: 0.91 in Trinidad, 0.83 in Bermuda, 0.68 in
Guadeloupe and in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands,
0.57 in Merida in Mexico, and 0.19 in Freeport in the
Bahamas.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the S central
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in
the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds will pulse
to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras during
the late afternoons and evenings through Fri night.
Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere in
the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near Bermuda.
A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure
center, to 25N74W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward
between 58W and the surface trough. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward
from 50W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 23N northward from 55W eastward. Light winds are
in the areas of the surface anticyclonic wind flow.

Elsewhere west of 60W, wind speeds are gentle to moderate.
Seas are 3-5 ft west of 60W, except 5 to 6 ft near 30N70W.
Fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas from roughly 16N
to 27N east of 46W, between this ridge and the tropical
waves that are more to the south. Stronger NE winds are
off Morocco, Western Sahara and near the Canary Islands.
Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere.

A surface trough extending from 31N65W to 25N73W will drift
SE through today, then retreat by the end of the week.
SW winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh off
NE Florida Fri night into early Sat. Ridging will dominate
the basin this weekend into early next week. Expect trade
winds to increase to fresh speeds over the weekend
S of 25N and E of 75W.

$$
mt/al
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net